<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p> This paper presents the perspectives for application of computer models in forecasting the dynamics of forest development on example of Moczarne area, in Bieszczadzki National Park, based on authors’ computer models. First, the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development in a local scale, i.e. within single rectangular or circular study plot, are presented. For this purpose, a computer prognostic model FORKOM E has been applied, using both general mathematical relationships functioning within a forest ecosystem and empirical ones, characteristic for tree stands at analysed plots. Additionally, a layer of 3D visualisation of a tree stand, which is an integral part of the mentioned model, is also presented. Presented also are the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development at landscape scale, applying the theory of cellular automata. For this purpose, a prognostic computer model CELLAUT was used in which the whole analysed tree stand is understood as a set of single cells, where stages of landscape development dominating within those cells are considered as also the influence of particular cells upon their neighbours. The paper also describes the perspectives for application of self-learning neural networks in the process of supplementation and verification of some parameters of a tree stand, calculated by the above-mentioned models.</p></abstract>

This paper presents the perspectives for application of computer models in forecasting the dynamics of forest development on example of Moczarne area, in Bieszczadzki National Park, based on authors’ computer models. First, the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development in a local scale, i.e. within single rectangular or circular study plot, are presented. For this purpose, a computer prognostic model FORKOM E has been applied, using both general mathematical relationships functioning within a forest ecosystem and empirical ones, characteristic for tree stands at analysed plots. Additionally, a layer of 3D visualisation of a tree stand, which is an integral part of the mentioned model, is also presented. Presented also are the possibilities for forecasting the dynamics of forest development at landscape scale, applying the theory of cellular automata. For this purpose, a prognostic computer model CELLAUT was used in which the whole analysed tree stand is understood as a set of single cells, where stages of landscape development dominating within those cells are considered as also the influence of particular cells upon their neighbours. The paper also describes the perspectives for application of self-learning neural networks in the process of supplementation and verification of some parameters of a tree stand, calculated by the above-mentioned models.

Perspectives for the application of computer models to forest dynamics forecasting in bieszczadzki national park (Poland)

Department of Landscape Ecology, John Paul II Catholic University in Lublin, Konstantynów 1H, 20-708 Lublin, Poland

Department of Applied Ecology, John Paul II Catholic University in Lublin, Konstantynów1H, 20-708 Lublin, Poland

Bieszczadzki National Park, Bełzka 10, 38-700 Ustrzyki Dolne, Poland

Chair of Forest Management, Agricultural University of Kraków, 29Listopada 46, 31-425 Kraków, Poland

Ekológia (Bratislava)

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

This paper presents the perspectives for application of computer models in forecasting the dynamics of forest development on example of Moczarne area, in...

Perspectives for the application of computer models to forest dynamics forecasting in bieszczadzki national park (Poland)

Published Online: Apr 12, 2014

Page range: 16 - 25

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eko-2014-0003

Keywords
forest, Bieszczadzki National Park, FORKOME, CELLAUT, prognosis

© by Ihor Kozak

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Perspectives for the application of computer models to forest dynamics forecasting in bieszczadzki national park (Poland)

Published Online: Apr 12, 2014

Page range: 16 - 25

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/eko-2014-0003

Keywordsforest, Bieszczadzki National Park, FORKOME, CELLAUT, prognosis

© by Ihor Kozak

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Keywords
forest, Bieszczadzki National Park, FORKOME, CELLAUT, prognosis