Are the European Commission's forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?

Baldi, G. (2016). Fiscal policy rules, budget deficits, and forecasting biases. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 19(2), 185–194.BaldiG.2016Fiscal policy rules, budget deficits, and forecasting biasesJournal of Economic Policy Reform19218519410.1080/17487870.2015.1057509Search in Google Scholar

Brück, T., & Stephan, A. (2006). Do Eurozone countries cheat with their budget deficit forecasts? Kyklos, 59(1), 3–15.BrückT.StephanA.2006Do Eurozone countries cheat with their budget deficit forecasts?Kyklos59131510.1111/j.1467-6435.2006.00317.xSearch in Google Scholar

Diebold, F. X., & Mariano, R. S. (1995). Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 253–263.DieboldF. X.MarianoR. S.1995Comparing predictive accuracyJournal of Business and Economic Statistics1325326310.3386/t0169Search in Google Scholar

Gilbert, N. D., & de Jong, J. F. (2017). Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact. Public Choice, 170(1–2), 1–32.GilbertN. D.de JongJ. F.2017Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth PactPublic Choice1701–213210.1007/s11127-016-0372-1Search in Google Scholar

Frankel, J., & Schreger, J. (2013). Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the Eurozone. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 247–272.FrankelJ.SchregerJ.2013Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the EurozoneReview of World Economics149224727210.3386/w18283Search in Google Scholar

Harvey, D., Leybourne, S., & Newbold, P. (1997). Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors. International Journal of Forecasting, 13(2), 281–291.HarveyD.LeybourneS.NewboldP.1997Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errorsInternational Journal of Forecasting13228129110.1016/S0169-2070(96)00719-4Search in Google Scholar

Jonung, L., & Larch, M. (2006). Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts. Economic Policy, 21(47), 492–534.JonungL.LarchM.2006Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecastsEconomic Policy214749253410.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.xSearch in Google Scholar

Merola, R., & Pérez, J. (2012), Fiscal forecast errors: Governments vs independent agencies? Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1233.MerolaR.PérezJ.2012Fiscal forecast errors: Governments vs independent agencies?Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1233.10.2139/ssrn.2149439Search in Google Scholar

Pina, Á. M., & Venes, N. M. (2011). The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessment. European Journal of Political Economy, 27(3), 534–546.PinaÁ. M.VenesN. M.2011The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: an empirical assessmentEuropean Journal of Political Economy27353454610.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.01.005Search in Google Scholar

Rybacki, J. (2019). Fiscal deficit forecasts by international institutions: Evidence for a double standard? Collegium of Economic Analysis SGH-Working Papers, 44.RybackiJ.2019Fiscal deficit forecasts by international institutions: Evidence for a double standard?Collegium of Economic Analysis SGH-Working Papers, 44.10.2139/ssrn.3391850Search in Google Scholar

Schaechter, A., Kinda, T., Budina, N. T., & Weber, A. (2012) Fiscal rules in response to the crisis-toward the ‚next-generation’ rules: A new dataset. IMF Working Paper No. 12/187.SchaechterA.KindaT.BudinaN. T.WeberA.2012Fiscal rules in response to the crisis-toward the ‚next-generation’ rules: A new datasetIMF Working Paper No. 12/187.10.2139/ssrn.2169733Search in Google Scholar

Schick, A. (2010). Post-crisis fiscal rules. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 10(2), 1–18.SchickA.2010Post-crisis fiscal rulesOECD Journal on Budgeting10211810.1787/budget-10-5km7rqpkqts1Search in Google Scholar