Are the European Commission's forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?
| Oct 31, 2020
About this article
Published Online: Oct 31, 2020
Page range: 101 - 109
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0013
Keywords
© 2020 Jakub Rybacki, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Cross-sectional fixed effects of the model
| Belgium | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.12 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.86 |
| Germany | 0.11 | −0.18 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.24 | −0.03 |
| Estonia | 0.07 | 0.34 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.22 | −0.93 |
| Ireland | −0.19 | −1.25 | 0.41 | −1.29 | −4.83 | 1.47 |
| Spain | 0.10 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.43 | −2.30 |
| France | −0.08 | −0.12 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 0.73 | −0.45 |
| Italy | −0.06 | −0.24 | 0.26 | 1.01 | 0.63 | −0.44 |
| Cyprus | −0.64 | −0.32 | −20.02 | 0.45 | −2.30 | −1.13 |
| Latvia | −0.09 | 0.17 | 0.54 | 0.25 | 1.94 | 1.76 |
| Lithuania | −0.39 | 1.27 | 0.18 | −0.02 | 1.08 | −0.06 |
| Luxembourg | −0.16 | −0.36 | 1.69 | −1.03 | −0.11 | 3.10 |
| Malta | −0.30 | −0.24 | 1.20 | −0.55 | −0.75 | 1.82 |
| Netherlands | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | 0.32 | 0.63 | −0.35 |
| Austria | −0.07 | −0.22 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.24 | −0.61 |
| Portugal | 0.13 | 0.11 | −0.54 | 0.16 | −1.02 | −2.11 |
| Slovenia | −0.21 | −0.37 | 0.71 | −0.71 | 0.12 | −0.72 |
| Slovakia | 0.07 | 1.82 | 1.89 | 0.35 | 5.18 | 3.54 |
| Finland | 0.12 | −0.21 | 0.37 | 0.23 | −0.64 | −0.79 |
| Bulgaria | 0.65 | −1.90 | 0.40 | −0.69 | −3.14 | 0.44 |
| Czech Republic | −0.19 | −0.40 | 0.09 | −0.05 | −0.09 | 0.21 |
| Denmark | 1.18 | −0.39 | 1.65 | 1.16 | 0.54 | 1.07 |
| Croatia | −0.35 | −0.47 | 0.15 | −3.61 | −2.35 | −0.23 |
| Hungary | −0.11 | 0.23 | 0.48 | 0.25 | 0.79 | −0.06 |
| Poland | 0.60 | 2.60 | 0.76 | −0.19 | 0.55 | −0.85 |
| Romania | −0.14 | 0.47 | 0.91 | 0.45 | 0.43 | −0.36 |
| Sweden | −0.08 | −0.16 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 0.19 | −0.82 |
| United Kingdom | −0.05 | −0.21 | 0.46 | 0.57 | 0.05 | −0.45 |
The difference in squared forecast errors – model
| Model – | 0.08 | 0.19 | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.25 | 0.3 |
| 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.49 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.23 | |
| 1.59 (0.12) | 1.39 (0.17) | −0.73 (0.47) | −2.57 (0.01) | −0.95 (0.34) | 1.31 (0.19) | |
| 0.29 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.28 | |
| Observations | 159 | 159 | 159 | 132 | 132 | 132 |
| Periods | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Cross sections | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
Redundant fixed effects – test
| Cross-sectional | 1.68 (0.03) | 1.36 (0.13) | 1.67 (0.03) | 1.70 (0.03) | 1.66 (0.04) | 1.29 (0.19) |
| Cross-sectional chi-square | 46.89 (0.01) | 39.18 (0.05) | 46.73 (0.01) | 47.91 (0.01) | 47.07 (0.01) | 37.83 (0.06) |
| Period | 1.47 (0.20) | 1.05 (0.39) | 0.96 (0.44) | 2.23 (0.07) | 2.26 (0.07) | 1.53 (0.20) |
| Period chi-square | 8.92 (0.11) | 6.43 (0.27) | 5.91 (0.32) | 11.14 (0.03) | 11.31 (0.02) | 7.77 (0.10) |
| Cross-section/period | 1.65 (0.03) | 1.31 (0.15) | 1.56 (0.04) | 1.76 (0.02) | 1.74 (0.02) | 1.33 (0.15) |
| Cross-section/period chi-square | 53.81 (0.01) | 44.05 (0.06) | 51.39 (0.01) | 55.41 (0.00) | 55.06 (0.00) | 44.05 (0.05) |
Time period fixed effects of the model
| 2014 | 0.04 | −0.32 | 0.00 | −0.20 | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| 2015 | −0.12 | −0.36 | −0.26 | −0.42 | −1.56 | −0.45 |
| 2016 | −0.19 | −0.17 | 0.61 | −0.01 | 0.29 | 0.05 |
| 2017 | 0.05 | 0.57 | 1.21 | −0.07 | 0.30 | −0.42 |
| 2018 | −0.02 | 0.15 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.34 | −0.31 |
| 2019 | 0.25 | 0.13 | −2.15 | |||