The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems may manifest itself by a shift in forest vegetation zones in the landscape northward and into higher elevations. Studies of climate change-induced vegetation zone shifts in forest ecosystems have been relatively rare in the context of European temperate zone (apart from Alpine regions). The presented paper outlines the results of a biogeographic model of climatic conditions in forest vegetation zones applied in the Central European landscape. The objective of the study is a prediction of future silvicultural conditions for the Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.), which is one of the principal tree species within European forests. The model is based on a general environmental dependence of forest vegetation zones on the long-term effect of altitudinal and exposure climates defined by the mean and extreme air temperatures and the amount and distribution of atmospheric precipitation. The climatological data for the model were provided by a validated regional climate database for 2010 – 2090 according to the SRES A1B scenario, bound to specific geo-referenced points in the landscape. The geobiocoenological data in the model were provided by the Biogeography Register database which contains ecological data on the landscape bound to individual cadastres of the entire Czech Republic. The biogeographic model applies special programs (the FORTRAN programming language) in the environment of geographic information systems. The model outputs can be clearly graphically visualized as scenarios of predicted future climatic conditions of landscape vegetation zones. Modelling of the regional scenario of changes in the climatic conditions of forest vegetation zones reveals that in the prediction period of 2070 and beyond, good and very good climatic conditions for the cultivation of forests with dominant Norway spruce will be found only in some parts of its today’s native range in forest vegetation zones 5 – 8. Based on the results provided by the regional scenario, the authors of this paper recommend fundamental reassessment of the national strategy of sustainable forest management in the Czech Republic, stipulating that the current practice of spruce cultivation be reduced only to areas specifically defined by the biogeographic model. The paper shows that biogeographic models based on the concept of vegetation zoning can be applied not only in regional scenarios of climate change in the landscape but also as support tools for the creation of strategies of sustainable forest management.
