<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>This paper compares three lists of basic ‘stylized facts’ of global economic growth and proposes a list of five ‘stylized trends’ that describe the main developments of the global economy in the 20th century. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue in the 21st century. Considering this theory, it is argued that the global economy rate of growth of the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but decline significantly in the second half. This paper offers forecasts for the average growth rates during this century, and the levels by its end, of the per capita GDP for the technology frontier area (TFA) of the world, and for the countries outside the TFA. According to these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the 19th and 20th centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence between the TFA and the other countries during the 21st century.</p></abstract>

This paper compares three lists of basic ‘stylized facts’ of global economic growth and proposes a list of five ‘stylized trends’ that describe the main developments of the global economy in the 20th century. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue in the 21st century. Considering this theory, it is argued that the global economy rate of growth of the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but decline significantly in the second half. This paper offers forecasts for the average growth rates during this century, and the levels by its end, of the per capita GDP for the technology frontier area (TFA) of the world, and for the countries outside the TFA. According to these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the 19th and 20th centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence between the TFA and the other countries during the 21st century.

The Global Economy in the 21st Century: Will the Trends of the 20th Century Continue?

Central European Economic Journal

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

This paper compares three lists of basic ‘stylized facts’ of global economic growth and proposes a list of five ‘stylized trends’ that describe the main...

	2000	2100
Population (bn)

TFA	1	2
Non-TFA	5	8

GDP per capita, index (TFA in 2000 = 1)

TFA	1	4
Non-TFA	0.2	2.4
Total	0.3	2.7

Total GDP, index (TFA in 2000 = 1)

TFA	1	8
Non-TFA	1	19

The Global Economy in the 21st Century: Will the Trends of the 20th Century Continue?

Pubblicato online: 21 mar 2018

Pagine: 62 - 72

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ceej-2017-0011

Parole chiave
global economic trends, 20th and 21st centuries, convergence, divergence

© 2017 S. Gomułka

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Key changes in the 21st century

The Global Economy in the 21st Century: Will the Trends of the 20th Century Continue?

Pubblicato online: 21 mar 2018

Pagine: 62 - 72

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ceej-2017-0011

Parole chiaveglobal economic trends, 20th and 21st centuries, convergence, divergence

© 2017 S. Gomułka

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Key changes in the 21st century

Parole chiave
global economic trends, 20th and 21st centuries, convergence, divergence