<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The paper discusses the impact of the decision-making profiles on the consistency of rankings obtained by three multiple criteria methods, i.e. DR, AHP and TOPSIS. The online decision making experiment was organized, based on an electronic questionnaire which is a hybrid of the internet survey system and the decision support system. The participants of the experiment were 418 students of Polish universities. To describe the decision-making profile, the REI test was used which allows to distinguish two decision-making styles: rational and intuitive. The Kendall rank correlation coefficient was used to test the consistency of the rankings obtained by the considered methods. Using different grouping methods, the relationship between the decision profile and the ability to express one’s preferences by means of these methods, that differ in cognitive requirements, was examined. The results of the research may be helpful for supporting the decision-maker in decision processes by choosing the method that fits their profile best.</abstract>

The Impact of Decision-Making Profiles on the Consistency of Rankings Obtained by Means of Selected Multiple Criteria Decision-Aiding Methods

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The aim of the paper is to assess the potential for using some selected PCA-based methods to analyze the spatial diversity of crime in Poland during 2000-2017. Classical principal components analysis (PCA) deals with two-way matrices, usually taking into account objects and variables. In the case of data analyzed in the study, apart from two dimensions (<italic>objects</italic> – voivodships, <italic>variables</italic><bold>–</bold> criminal offences), there is also the dimension of time, so the dataset can be seen as data cube: <italic>objects</italic> × <italic>variables</italic> × <italic>time</italic>. Therefore, this type of data requires the use of methods handling three-way data structures. In the paper the variability of some selected categories of criminal offences in time (2000–2017) and space (according to voivodships) is analyzed using the between-class and the within-class principal component analysis. The advantage of these methods is, among others, the possibility of the graphical presentation of the results in two-dimensional space with the use of factorial maps.</abstract>

On the Potential for Using Selected PCA-Based Methods to Analyze the Crime Rate in Poland

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">It is believed that the ad valorem tax will increase fiscal burdens. In order to verify this statement, with the use of the Szczecin Algorithm of Real Estates Mass Appraisal, the land plots were appraised and the ad valorem tax was calculated. Next, a training set was sampled, for which the composite variable was calculated by means of three approaches: the TOPSIS method, the Generalised Distance Measure as the composite measure of development (GDM2), and the quasi-TOPSIS. They were the explanatory variables in the logistic regression model. Next, for the test set, changes of tax burden were forecasted. The aim of the research was to check the effectiveness of the presented approach for the estimation of the consequences of introducing the ad valorem tax. The results showed that all three approaches yielded similar results, but GDM2 was the best one. The main finding is that these approaches can be used in the prediction of changes in the tax burden of land plots.</abstract>

Prediction of Changes in the Tax Burden of Land Plots with the Use of Multivariate Statistical Analysis Methods

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The aim of the research was an assessment of the relative risk of liquidation of a company depending on its age. The research covered economic entities established in Szczecin in the period 1990-2010. The analysis was carried out with the use of a logit model. The risk of company liquidation was examined depending on the entity’s age expressed both in months (continuous variable) and in grouped intervals (year, half-year). In this way, attention was drawn to the benefits of continuous variable coding (rank and 0-1 coding). The research covered companies established during 1990-2010 in total (over 120 thousand) and in time periods resulting from the cyclical character of liquidation of companies (in accordance with the earlier research findings). The research showed that the risk of company liquidation decreases as the company grows older (the use of a continuous variable and a rank variable). On the other hand, the risk of subsequent age groups (using the 0-1 variable) prevents the risk from being monotonous.</abstract>

Analysis of the Risk of Liquidation Depending on the Age of the Company: A Study of Entities Established in Szczecin in Period 1990-2010

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">The beta parameter is a popular tool for the evaluation of portfolio performance. The Sharpe single-index model is a simple regression model in which the stock’s returns are regressed against the returns of a broader index. The beta parameter is a measure of the strength of this relation. Extensive recent research has proved that the beta is not constant in time and should be modelled as a time-variant coefficient. One of the most popular methods of the estimation of a time-varying beta is the Kalman filter. As the output of the Kalman filter, one obtains a sequence of the estimates of a time-varying beta. This sequence shows the historical dynamics of sensitivity of a company’s returns to the variations of market returns. The article proposes a method of clustering companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange according to time-varying betas.</abstract>

Clustering Companies Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange According to Time-Varying Beta

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">This paper presents the methods for the evaluation of budget variance risk, i.e. the risk of a difference between the budgeted and actual figures. The postulated approach is based on extreme value analysis (EVA), to offer, among other things, the evaluation of maxima distribution parameters for studied phenomena. The proper recognition of these parameters yields potential for calculation of probabilities for budget variance to pass certain levels established as critical. This methodology can be used to evaluate deviation levels by time period, and to compare them against historical data. The main objective of this paper was to examine the utility of the theory of extreme values in the estimation of budget deviation risks. The study presents the results of probabilistic analyses of data obtained from a budgetary cost control unit of a production company located in eastern Poland, for the period of 2011-2012. The developed method of analysis and assessment of budget deviations is in line with the development of concepts and methods of management accounting.</abstract>

Application of Extreme Value Analysis in the Assessment of Budget Variance Risk

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">One of the central tasks of credit institutions is credit risk assessment, in which the estimation of the probability of default is an important element. The size of an institution’s credit portfolio can decrease as a result of early repayments, which changes the probability of default over time. Prognosis of the probability of default should therefore also take into consideration the prognosis of early repayments. In this paper, methods of evaluating the probability of default over time, using competing risks regression models, are considered. Methods of evaluation for models of default over time are proposed. A sample of retail credits, provided by a Polish financial institution, was empirically examined.</abstract>

Competing Risk Models of Default in the Presence of Early Repayments

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Econometrics

 The Econometrics journal has been published continuously since 1998. Starting from the first issue, Józef Dziechciarz has been an Editor-in-Chief of the journal. Until 2011, the journal was issued in the series of Academic Research Papers at the Wrocław University of Economics as Econometrics. Applications of quantitative methods. Since 2009, four issues have been published annually. It enables the introduction of regular quarterly release cycle. The Econometrics is published in English. The Scientific Council of our journal also includes professors affiliated with foreign institutions. The list of scientific reviewers includes eminent scientists from both home and abroad. Among the authors of the publications are both scientists from Polish academia, as well as many scientists from foreign universities. High level of scientific works, our confidence and insightful comments from reviewers contribute to the publication of valuable articles and dissemination of national scientific achievements. Until the end of 2017, fifty eight issues of the journal were published.  The subject area of the published articles covers theoretical and practical aspects of the methods of econometrics, statistics and mathematics. The domain of applications of these methods covers wider economic issues, including macro and microeconomic analyses; statistical and econometric analysis and modeling market data, as well as capital investment and insurance problems. Social and demographic analyses cover the issues of education, employment and unemployment, poverty, etc. Many studies have cyclical character, published articles show long-term results of research, include a scientific discussion with the reviewers suggestions formulated on the basis of earlier works. This allows to track the progress of scientific research, and the publications appearing in the Econometrics journal are an inspiration to undertake new research challenges.  econometrics.ue.wroc.pl/　   The Econometrics journal is indexed in Google Scholar and details on the citations can be found on Google Scholar Citations.  Also find us at:   Index Copernicus  Erih Plus    Why subscribe and read The Econometrics is a scientific journal that promotes both theoretical aspects of mathematical, statistical and econometric methods as well as application possibilities. It focuses on the presentation of new and modernization of well-known methods as well as their adaptation in economy, business processes and social sciences in a very broad meaning. Due to the fast publishing production, the presented articles refer to the latest research, papers are always up-to-date, original, scientific, never printed before in other scientific journals. The Econometrics is the place of interdisciplinary debate with the participation of economists and statisticians.  Why submit The journal offers a fast, honest and constructive review, carried out in the double blind review process. After acceptance, an article is evaluated by a native speaker and a statistics editor. After acceptance, the publication process is very fast.The Econometrics journal belongs to the group of magazines that are constantly highly rated and enjoy a good reputation among authors and reviewers.  Rejection Rate   32%   Archiving  Sciendo archives the contents of this journal in Portico - digital long-term preservation service of scholarly books, journals and collections.  Plagiarism Policy  The editorial board is participating in a growing community of Similarity Check System's users in order to ensure that the content published is original and trustworthy. Similarity Check is a medium that allows for comprehensive manuscripts screening, aimed to eliminate plagiarism and provide a high standard and quality peer-review process. 