<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>Projected changes of warm season (May–September) rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000) and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099) periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity) are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity) depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.</p></abstract>

Projected changes of warm season (May–September) rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000) and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099) periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity) are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity) depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

{"article-title":"Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic"}

Projected changes of warm season (May–September) rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations are assessed for the Czech...

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

Publié en ligne: 21 oct. 2016

Pages: 415 - 425

Reçu: 21 déc. 2015

Accepté: 25 mai 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2016-0036

Mots clés
Rainfall event, Hourly rainfall, Regional climate model, Climate change

© 2016 Vojtěch Svoboda et al., published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

Publié en ligne: 21 oct. 2016

Pages: 415 - 425

Reçu: 21 déc. 2015

Accepté: 25 mai 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2016-0036

Mots clésRainfall event, Hourly rainfall, Regional climate model, Climate change

© 2016 Vojtěch Svoboda et al., published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Mots clés
Rainfall event, Hourly rainfall, Regional climate model, Climate change