<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>A mathematical model known as one-order one-variable grey differential equation model GM(1, 1) has been herein employed successfully for the ultra short-term (&lt;10days) predictions of universal time (UT1-UTC). The results of predictions are analyzed and compared with those obtained by other methods. It is shown that the accuracy of the predictions is comparable with that obtained by other prediction methods. The proposed method is able to yield an exact prediction even though only a few observations are provided. Hence it is very valuable in the case of a small size dataset since traditional methods, e.g., least-squares (LS) extrapolation, require longer data span to make a good forecast. In addition, these results can be obtained without making any assumption about an original dataset, and thus is of high reliability. Another advantage is that the developed method is easy to use. All these reveal a great potential of the GM(1, 1) model for UT1-UTC predictions.</p></abstract>

A mathematical model known as one-order one-variable grey differential equation model GM(1, 1) has been herein employed successfully for the ultra short-term (<10days) predictions of universal time (UT1-UTC). The results of predictions are analyzed and compared with those obtained by other methods. It is shown that the accuracy of the predictions is comparable with that obtained by other prediction methods. The proposed method is able to yield an exact prediction even though only a few observations are provided. Hence it is very valuable in the case of a small size dataset since traditional methods, e.g., least-squares (LS) extrapolation, require longer data span to make a good forecast. In addition, these results can be obtained without making any assumption about an original dataset, and thus is of high reliability. Another advantage is that the developed method is easy to use. All these reveal a great potential of the GM(1, 1) model for UT1-UTC predictions.

Application of Grey Model GM(1, 1) to Ultra Short-Term Predictions of Universal Time

(National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)

(Key Laboratory of Time and Frequency Primary Standards, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)

(University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)

(Xi’an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China)

Artificial Satellites

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

A mathematical model known as one-order one-variable grey differential equation model GM(1, 1) has been herein employed successfully for the ultra short-term...

Application of Grey Model GM(1, 1) to Ultra Short-Term Predictions of Universal Time

Publié en ligne: 22 févr. 2016

Pages: 19 - 29

Reçu: 02 nov. 2015

Accepté: 08 janv. 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/arsa-2016-0002

Mots clés
1. Universal Time (UT1-UTC)., 2. Prediction., 3. Grey Model.

© 2016 Artificial Satellites

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Application of Grey Model GM(1, 1) to Ultra Short-Term Predictions of Universal Time

Publié en ligne: 22 févr. 2016

Pages: 19 - 29

Reçu: 02 nov. 2015

Accepté: 08 janv. 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/arsa-2016-0002

Mots clés1. Universal Time (UT1-UTC)., 2. Prediction., 3. Grey Model.

© 2016 Artificial Satellites

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Mots clés
1. Universal Time (UT1-UTC)., 2. Prediction., 3. Grey Model.