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Recurrence interval of strong earthquakes in the se Altai, Russia revealed by tree-ring analysis and radiocarbon dating

Roman K. Nepop
Roman K. Nepop
 y 
Anna R. Agatova
Anna R. Agatova
   | 24 ene 2018
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Publicado en línea: 24 ene 2018
Páginas: 20 - 33
Recibido: 28 jun 2016
Aceptado: 23 oct 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/geochr-2015-0083
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© 2018 R. Nepop and A. Agatova, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Fig. 1

Study area. Inset indicates the location of the SE Altai within the Altai Mountains. Neotectonic structure presented after Novikov, 2004. The studied sites in the Arydjan A) and Taldura B) valleys are shown with diamond.
Study area. Inset indicates the location of the SE Altai within the Altai Mountains. Neotectonic structure presented after Novikov, 2004. The studied sites in the Arydjan A) and Taldura B) valleys are shown with diamond.

Fig. 2

Evidences of high regional seismicity.A) Seismically induced landslides in Taldura valley (T1 in Fig. 4). Black arrows show paleolanslide and light arrow – the largest landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquake. B) Ruptures of the 2003 Chuya earthquake in the Uzuk stow (U in Fig. 4) going along saddle-back of tectonic origin. C) Holocene seismic convolutions in soft sediments in Taldura valley (T1 in Fig. 4).
Evidences of high regional seismicity.A) Seismically induced landslides in Taldura valley (T1 in Fig. 4). Black arrows show paleolanslide and light arrow – the largest landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquake. B) Ruptures of the 2003 Chuya earthquake in the Uzuk stow (U in Fig. 4) going along saddle-back of tectonic origin. C) Holocene seismic convolutions in soft sediments in Taldura valley (T1 in Fig. 4).

Fig. 3

The largest landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquake in Taldura valley (T1 in Fig. 4). Numbers indicate location of studied outcrops.
The largest landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquake in Taldura valley (T1 in Fig. 4). Numbers indicate location of studied outcrops.

Fig. 4

Sketch neotectonic map showing the locations of study sites discussed in the paper.A – Arydjan valley;K – Southern flank of the Central Kurai neotectonic foreberg;S – Sukor paleoseismic deformation;T1 – the largest landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquake in Taldura valley;T2 – Taldura valley;U – Uzuk stow (Kuskunur – Taldura watershed).
Sketch neotectonic map showing the locations of study sites discussed in the paper.A – Arydjan valley;K – Southern flank of the Central Kurai neotectonic foreberg;S – Sukor paleoseismic deformation;T1 – the largest landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquake in Taldura valley;T2 – Taldura valley;U – Uzuk stow (Kuskunur – Taldura watershed).

Fig. 5

Discussed complex of the earthquake triggered landslides in the Arydjan valley (A in Fig. 4).
Discussed complex of the earthquake triggered landslides in the Arydjan valley (A in Fig. 4).

Fig. 6

Local 1154-years (AD 856–2009) TRC on Pinus sibirica Du Tour build for Arydjan valley (Agatova et al., 2014b). On the left – tree-ring growth index. In the center, one of collected discs demonstrates numerous wood penetrating injurious on the slope facing and lateral sides of the trunks (photo made by Barinov V. V.). On the right – anomalies of tree-rings (callus tissue) is a reaction on frontal and tangent impact of falling stones (photo made by Barinov V. V.).
Local 1154-years (AD 856–2009) TRC on Pinus sibirica Du Tour build for Arydjan valley (Agatova et al., 2014b). On the left – tree-ring growth index. In the center, one of collected discs demonstrates numerous wood penetrating injurious on the slope facing and lateral sides of the trunks (photo made by Barinov V. V.). On the right – anomalies of tree-rings (callus tissue) is a reaction on frontal and tangent impact of falling stones (photo made by Barinov V. V.).

Fig. 7

Newly arisen outcrop in one of the scarps of the largest landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquake in the Taldura valley (location 1 in Fig. 3).
Newly arisen outcrop in one of the scarps of the largest landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquake in the Taldura valley (location 1 in Fig. 3).

Fig. 8

Section of lacustrine sediments with the peat layer in the Taldura valley (location 1 in Fig. 3).
Section of lacustrine sediments with the peat layer in the Taldura valley (location 1 in Fig. 3).

Fig. 9

Reconstructed dates of strong prehistoric earthquakes within the SE Altai, obtained by radiocarbon method and dendrochronological analysis.
Reconstructed dates of strong prehistoric earthquakes within the SE Altai, obtained by radiocarbon method and dendrochronological analysis.

Application of tree-ring analysis to earthquake studies. Direct and indirect effects are presented under a “process-effect-response” model. Various aspects of studying growth disturbances in trees affected by geomorphic processes are analyzed in (Stoffel and Bollschweiler, 2008) and application of tree-ring analysis to paleoseismology is discussed in detail by Jacoby (1997).

ProcessEffectResponse
Primary earthquake effects (tectonic deformations)
rupturingsplitting the trunk, root system damagesuppression, missed rings, mortality
tectonic scarp formationtilting of stemsreaction wood formation
Secondary earthquake effects (mass movements)
slope failures, devastating mass movementselimination of the entire forest standrecolonization of bare surface
landslides, rock falls, debris flowstilting of stemsreaction wood formation
stem burialsuppression, mortality, exceptionally – growth increase in case of rich nutrition and water supply
root exposuregrowth suppression, mortality
wood penetrating injuries, scarscallus tissue formation and overgrowing the wound
decapitation, elimination of branchesgrowth suppression
Side effects
ground shakingdecapitation, root system and major limb damagesuppression, missed rings, mortality
change in hydrologychange in water tablesuppression, growth increase
various earthquake induced surface processeselimination of neighboring treesthe growth release in survivor trees

Radiocarbon dates used for estimating the recurrence interval of strong prehistoric earthquakes in the SE Altai.

Calibrated age (cal BP)
Sample Lab. codLocation Fig. 4Sample type14C age

Radiocarbon analysis was made on cc – charcoal, ha – humic acid, w – wood.

 (BP)		Interpretation
Significance level 68.2%Significance level 95.4%
IGAN 4090T1seismically cut fossil soil exhumed in rupture of the 2003 Chuya earthquakeha 2240±602340–2290 (17.3%) 2260–2150 (50.9%)2360–2110 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that cut and buried soil layer
IGAN 4092T1char coal from seismically deformed fossil soilcc 1460±701420–1290 (68.2%)1530–1280 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that deformed and buried soil layer
IGAN 4103T2paleosoils overlaid by colluvium sedimentsha 510±60630–600 (13.3%) 560–500 (54.9%)660–460 (95.4%)period of tectonic respite and soil formation at the foot of the steep slope
IGAN 4104T2paleosoils overlaid by colluvium sedimentsha 600±60650–580 (50.8%) 570–540 (17.4%)670–520 (95.4%)period of tectonic respite and soil formation at the foot of the steep slope
IGAN 4105T1seismically cut fossil soil exhumed in rupture of the 2003 Chuya earthquakeha 950±60930–790 (68.2%)970–730 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that cut and buried soil layer
IGAN 4106T2paleosoils overlaid by colluvium sedimentsha 710±70730–630 (50.6%) 600–560 (17.6%)770–540 (95.4%)period of tectonic respite and soil formation at the foot of the steep slope
SOAN 8416T1seismically cut peat layer covered lacustrine sediments with seismic convolutionsha 2040±552100–2080 (3.9%) 2070–1920 (64.3%)2150–1880 (95.4%)low possible date of earthquake that formed convolution structures
SOAN 8417T1charcoal from paleosoil layercc 2755±402880–2780 (68.2%)2950–2770 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that deformed and buried soil layer
SOAN 8418T1fossil soil with charcoal overlaid by colluvium sedimentsha 2535±402750–2690 (26.8%) 2640–2610 (9.0%) 2590–2500 (32.5%)2750–2480 (95.4%)period of tectonic respite and soil formation
SOAN 8419T1fossil soil with charcoal overlaid by colluvium sedimentsha 3335±403640–3550 (48.6%) 3540–3490 (19.6%)3690–3660 (3.9%) 3650–3460 (91.5%)period of tectonic respite and soil formation
SOAN 8425Kwood fragment from humified loam layer overlaid by colluvium sedimentsw 845±35790–700 (68.2%)900–860 (6.4%) 830–810 (1.1%) 800–680 (87.9%)stabilization period of the alluvial-colluvial fan at the foot of the rocky slope
SOAN 8549Khumified loam layer overlaid by colluvium sedimentsha 3275±803590–3400 (68.2%)3700–3340 (95.4%)stabilization period of the alluvial–colluvial fan at the foot of the rocky slope
SOAN 8658T1wood fragments from fossil peat layer in the proximal part of the giant landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquakew 650±65670–620 (31.9%) 610–550 (36.3%)690–530 (95.4%)upper possible date of strong earthquake that coursed peat bog formation
SOAN 8659T1contemporary soil overlapping seismically cut paleosoilsha 250±30320–280 (50.2%) 170–150 (18.0%)430–360 (15.0%) 330–270 (55.2%) 190–140 (21.3%) 20–0 (4.0%)upper possible date of strong paleoearthquake
SOAN 8663T1seismically cut fossil soil with charcoalha 2380±652680–2640 (9.5%) 2610–2600 (1.6%) 2500–2340 (57.0%)2720–2310 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that cut and buried soil layer
SOAN 8664T1fossil peat layer with charcoal in the proximal part of the giant landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquakeha 1035±451050–1030 (4.6%) 990–910 (63.6%)1060–900 (87.2%) 870–800 (8.2%)upper possible date of strong earthquake that coursed peat bog formation
SOAN 8665T1seismically cut fossil soil with charcoalha 2295±402360–2300 (55.0%) 2230–2200 (13.2%)2360–2290 (59.4%) 2270–2150 (36.0%)low possible date of strong earthquake that cut and buried soil layer
SOAN 8666T1wood fragments from fossil soil layerw 1935±351930–1860 (54.5%) 1850–1820 (13.7%)1990–1810 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that deformed and buried soil layer
SOAN 8667T1wood fragments from fossil soil layerw 2390±652680–2640 (10.5%) 2610–2590 (2.3%) 2500–2340 (55.4%)2720–2320 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that deformed and buried soil layer
SOAN 8668T1wood fragments from fossil soil layerw 2490±352720–2680 (13.1%) 2640–2490 (55.1%)2740–2430 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that deformed and buried soil layer
SOAN 8669T1fossil soil with charcoalha 2540±502750–2690 (25.5%) 2640–2610 (8.4%) 2600–2500 (34.3%)2760–2460 (95.4%)low possible date of strong earthquake that interrupt soil formation
SOAN 8670T1charcoal in sandy loamscc 3785±454240–4090 (68.2%)4380–4370 (0.5%) 4360–4320 (1.6%) 4300–4060 (85.4%) 4050–3980 (7.9%)intensification of slope processes
SOAN 8671T1charcoal in lacustrine sedimentscc 3765±454230–4080 (62.5%) 4030–4010 (5.7%)4290–4270 (1.1%) 4260–3980 (94.3%)upper possible date of strong earthquake that coursed lake formation
SOAN 8672T1buried peatha 3590±453970–3940 (11.2%) 3930–3830 (57.0%)4080–4040 (3.3%) 4000–3810 (84.4%) 3800–3720 (7.7%)upper possible date of strong earthquake that coursed peat bog formation
SOAN 8673T1buried peat layer in the proximal part of the giant landslide triggered by the 2003 Chuya earthquakeha 770±40730–670 (68.2%)770–660 (95.4%)upper possible date of strong earthquake that coursed peat bog formation
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