Cyclical Fluctuations in the Banking Services Market and the Changes in the Situation of Entities from the Financial Services Sector
y | 12 jul 2019
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Publicado en línea: 12 jul 2019
Páginas: 118 - 129
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ceej-2018-0014
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© 2018 R. Skikiewicz J. Garczarczyk, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.
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Turning points in the time series of cyclical component of the banking business tendency survey indicators in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
| variables | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOSF_c | P:2-2007 | T:4-2008 | P:3-2010 | T:1-2013 | P:1-2014 | T:2-2015 | P:1-2017 |
| PIKBANK_c | P:2-2007 | T:4-2008 | P:3-2010 | T:1-2013 | P:2-2014 | T:2-2015 | P:1-2017 |
Descriptive statistics for general business climate indicator WOK in section K and divisions 64 and 65 of the services sector in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
| Descriptive statistics | WOK_K_1 | WOK_64_1 | WOK_65_1 | WOK_K_2 | WOK_64_2 | WOK_65_2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean average | 29.6 | 28.4 | 34.2 | 29.4 | 28.0 | 33.4 |
| Quartile 1 | 21.4 | 20.8 | 25.3 | 22.2 | 21.3 | 25.6 |
| Median | 27.7 | 27.9 | 32.5 | 26.3 | 26.4 | 32.0 |
| Quartile 3 | 33.1 | 33.9 | 39.6 | 32.8 | 34.7 | 38.6 |
| Standard deviation | 12.4 | 15.7 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 16.4 | 11.7 |
| Coefficient of variation | 42.1% | 55.4% | 32.3% | 43.2% | 58.6% | 35.1% |
| Minimum | 4.8 | -4.6 | 12.5 | 1.1 | -18.1 | 6.0 |
| Maximum | 60.3 | 66.4 | 59.7 | 59.8 | 65.1 | 62.2 |
Descriptive statistics for indicator of current financial situation of the enterprise OSF in section K and divisions 64 and 65 of the services sector in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
| Descriptive statistics | OSF_K_1 | OSF_64_1 | OSF_65_1 | OSF_K_2 | OSF_64_2 | OSF_65_2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean average | 18.5 | 18.7 | 21.4 | 17.9 | 17.5 | 21.3 |
| Quartile 1 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 10.1 |
| Median | 15.9 | 15.6 | 18.2 | 16.0 | 15.7 | 17.1 |
| Quartile 3 | 25.0 | 25.4 | 28.3 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 29.4 |
| Standard deviation | 15.6 | 20.0 | 12.3 | 15.5 | 20.1 | 13.8 |
| Coefficient of variation | 84.1% | 107.3% | 57.6% | 86.6% | 114.6% | 64.6% |
| Minimum | -9.5 | -27.6 | 2.1 | -9.4 | -23.9 | -0.5 |
| Maximum | 55.3 | 65.6 | 49.4 | 54.3 | 66.7 | 49.4 |
Descriptive statistics for banking business tendency survey indicators in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
| Descriptive statistics | BOSF - assessment of the financial situation (diagnostic balance) | PIKBANK |
|---|---|---|
| Mean average | 31.1 | 31.5 |
| Quartile 1 | 13.6 | 23.9 |
| Median | 35.4 | 32.2 |
| Quartile 3 | 49.7 | 38.7 |
| Standard deviation | 25.2 | 11.0 |
| Coefficient of variation | 80.9% | 34.7% |
| Minimum | -37.4 | 10.5 |
| Maximum | 74.5 | 54.8 |
Assessment of lead/lag of the banking business tendency survey indicators in relation to business tendency survey indicators of the enterprise in section K based on the turning points analysis in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
| variables | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOSF_c | P:2-2007 | T:4-2008 | P:3-2010 | T:1-2013 | P:1-2014 | T:2-2015 | P:1-2017 | |||
| OSF_K_1_c | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | |||
| OSF_K_2_c | 0 | 0 | -1 | |||||||
| OSF_64_1_c | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| OSF_64_2_c | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | ||||||
| OSF_65_1_c | 1 | -7 | -4 | |||||||
| OSF_65_2_c | -2 | -7 | -4 | |||||||
| WOK_K_1_c | -2 | 0 | -1 | -7 | ||||||
| WOK_K_2_c | 0 | -1 | 0 | -7 | ||||||
| WOK_64_1_c | 1 | -1 | -1 | -7 | ||||||
| WOK_64_2_c | 1 | -1 | -1 | -7 | ||||||
| WOK_65_1_c | 0 | -2 | -8 | |||||||
| WOK_65_2_c | -2 | |||||||||
Turning points in the time series of cyclical component of the business tendency survey indicators for section K and its divisions in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
| variables | down turning point | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point | down turning point | upper turning point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOK_K_1_c | T:4-2003 | P:4-2007 | T:4-2008 | P:4-2010 | T:4-2014 | |||
| WOK_K_2_c | T:3-2003 | P:2-2007 | T:1-2009 | P:3-2010 | T:4-2014 | |||
| WOK_64_1_c | T:1-2004 | P:1-2007 | T:1-2009 | P:4-2010 | T:4-2014 | |||
| WOK_64_2_c | T:4-2003 | P:1-2007 | T:1-2009 | P:4-2010 | T:4-2014 | |||
| WOK_65_1_c | T:4-2003 | P:2-2007 | T:3-2013 | P:2-2016 | ||||
| WOK_65_2_c | T:3-2003 | P:4-2007 | ||||||
| OSF_K_1_c | P:4-2007 | T:4-2008 | P:3-2010 | T:1-2013 | P:2-2014 | T:2-2015 | P:2-2017 | |
| OSF_K_2_c | T:3-2003 | P:2-2007 | T:4-2008 | P:4-2011 | ||||
| OSF_64_1_c | P:4-2007 | T:4-2008 | P:3-2010 | T:2-2015 | ||||
| OSF_64_2_c | P:2-2007 | T:4-2008 | P:3-2010 | T:3-2015 | ||||
| OSF_65_1_c | T:3-2003 | P:1-2007 | T:3-2010 | P:3-2011 | ||||
| OSF_65_2_c | T:3-2003 | P:4-2004 | T:3-2010 | P:3-2011 |
Assessment of lead/lag of the banking business tendency survey indicators in relation to business tendency survey indicators of the enterprise in section K based on the cross-correlation analysis in the period 2003 Q1–2018 Q1
| PIKBANK_c | BOSF_c | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| variables | Pearson correlation coefficient | lag (+) / lead (-) | variables | Pearson correlation coefficient | lag (+) / lead (-) |
| WOK_K_1_c | -1 | OSF_K_1_c | 0.6900 | -1 | |
| WOK_K_2_c | 0.7212 | -1 | OSF_K_2_c | -1 | |
| WOK_64_1_c | 0.7025 | -1 | OSF_64_1_c | -1 | |
| WOK_64_2_c | 0 | OSF_64_2_c | 0.6303 | -1 | |
| WOK_65_1_c | 0.6381 | -1 | OSF_65_1_c | -2 | |
| WOK_65_2_c | -2 | OSF_65_2_c | 0.7002 | -2 | |