AIC | SC | HQ | |
---|---|---|---|
AR(3) | 35.06211 | 35.04297 | 34.94810 |
AR(2) | 35.25883 | 35.40352 | 35.16763 |
AR(1) | 35.45157 | 35.56009 | 35.38317 |
AIC | SC | HQ | |
---|---|---|---|
Lag order 3 | 59.53666 | 59.50575 | 59.15463 |
Lag order 2 | 59.06760 | 59.09739 | 58.86668 |
Lag order 1 | 58.98383 | 59.02766 | 58.88925 |
Years | Actual value | Predictive value | Relative error (%) | Average error (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | 70,01000 | 69,213,96 | −1.14 | 1.03 |
2010 | 88,75000 | 86,820,37 | −2.17 | |
2011 | 14,036000 | 13,726,730 | −2.20 | |
2012 | 21,015100 | 20,804,175 | −1.00 | |
2013 | 26,025200 | 25,844,980 | −0.69 | |
2014 | 30,307700 | 29,978,300 | −1.09 | |
2015 | 37,001800 | 37,101,749 | 0.27 | |
2016 | 53,375700 | 52,987,680 | −0.73 | |
2017 | 54,314000 | 54,283,760 | −0.05 | |
2018 | 67,185600 | 66,904,703 | −0.42 | |
2019 | 75,240032 | 74,826,047 | −0.55 |