Predicting individual tree and stand diameter increment responses of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) after mountain forest selective cutting

Models for predicting diameter increment in multi-storey spruce stands following mountain forest selective cutting (MFS) were developed. They were based on increment cores, tree ring analyses and stump registrations. The presented models rely upon time series data from 1600 trees in thirty-one Norway spruce stands in south-eastern and central parts of Norway. The selective cuttings were heavy; on average two thirds of the standing volume were cut. The increment following the interventions was highly variable, resulting in large random variability in the models with R² varying between 0.18-0.31 for individual tree diameter growth and 0.40-0.50 for mean tree stand diameter growth. Dummy variables referring to three first 5-year periods after cutting were found to increase the precision and significantly reduce the random error. Selected models were validated using a test material from central Norway and also compared with the mostly applied Norwegian diameter increment models. Despite a large random variation in all models, the model performances appeared logical and the general fit to the data was acceptable. Based on tests, two diameter increment models are recommended for future yield prognoses in MFS. The models should also be of interest for wider use in other parts of the Nordic and Baltic boreal zone.