<abstract xml:lang="en" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the Earth rotation parameters variations using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous comparison of UT1 predictions computed at SNIIM with the prediction computed by IERS (USNO) in 2008-2009 has shown that proposed method provides better accuracy both for ultra-short and long term predictions.</p></abstract>

A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the Earth rotation parameters variations using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous comparison of UT1 predictions computed at SNIIM with the prediction computed by IERS (USNO) in 2008-2009 has shown that proposed method provides better accuracy both for ultra-short and long term predictions.

UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis

Siberian Metrological Scientific-Research Institute (SNIIM), Novosibirsk, Russia

Central Astronomical Observatory at Pulkovo of RAS, St. Petersburg, Russia

Artificial Satellites

{"article-title":"UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis"}

A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the Earth rotation parameters...

UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis

Published Online: Nov 01, 2010

Page range: 111 - 118

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10018-010-0012-9

Keywords
Earth rotation, Earth orientation parameters, Universal time (UT1), UT1 prediction, polyharmonic model, autoregression

This content is open access.

UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis

Published Online: Nov 01, 2010

Page range: 111 - 118

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/v10018-010-0012-9

KeywordsEarth rotation, Earth orientation parameters, Universal time (UT1), UT1 prediction, polyharmonic model, autoregression

This content is open access.

Keywords
Earth rotation, Earth orientation parameters, Universal time (UT1), UT1 prediction, polyharmonic model, autoregression