Open Access

Monitoring and forecasting spatio-temporal LULC for Akure rainforest habitat in Nigeria

Yahaya A. Aliyu
Yahaya A. Aliyu
, 
Terwase T. Youngu
Terwase T. Youngu
, 
Aliyu Z. Abubakar
Aliyu Z. Abubakar
, 
Adamu Bala
Adamu Bala
 and 
Christianah I. Jesulowo
Christianah I. Jesulowo
   | Dec 31, 2020
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Article Category: Original Article
Published Online: Dec 31, 2020
Page range: 29 - 38
Received: Feb 26, 2020
Accepted: Nov 09, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/rgg-2020-0009
Keywords
© 2020 Yahaya A. Aliyu et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Study site, (a) map of Nigeria with the riverine area in black; (b) map of Ondo State; (c) Akure city
Study site, (a) map of Nigeria with the riverine area in black; (b) map of Ondo State; (c) Akure city

Figure 2

Methodological chart
Methodological chart

Figure 3

Spatial distribution (classified image) of the land cover of Akure
Spatial distribution (classified image) of the land cover of Akure

Figure 4

Change variation of land use/land cover classes in Akure. (a–c) gains (in green) and losses (in purple), (d–f) net variation (km2) in land use land cover (in purple) and (g–i) contributing the land use/cover to the net variation (km2) in built-up area for the study period (in purple)
Change variation of land use/land cover classes in Akure. (a–c) gains (in green) and losses (in purple), (d–f) net variation (km2) in land use land cover (in purple) and (g–i) contributing the land use/cover to the net variation (km2) in built-up area for the study period (in purple)

Figure 5

Land cover projections for the year 2039
Land cover projections for the year 2039

Accuracy assessment of LULC for the study period

Classified Data Bare Land Built-Up Area Cultivated Land Forest Cover Grassland Total User Accuracy (%)
December 1999 Bare Land 37 2 0 0 1 40 92.50
Built-Up Area 2 32 0 0 0 34 94.12
Cultivated Land 0 0 31 1 2 34 91.18
Forest Cover 1 1 2 34 0 38 89.47
Grassland 1 0 1 0 33 35 94.29
Total 41 35 34 35 36 181
Producer Accuracy (%) 90.24 91.43 91.18 97.14 91.67
Overall Accuracy = 92.27%; Kappa Statistics = 0.89; KHisto = 0.96; KLoc = 0.93
November 2009 Bare Land 31 6 0 0 2 39 79.49
Built-Up Area 1 34 0 0 0 35 97.14
Cultivated Land 1 0 33 1 2 37 89.19
Forest Cover 0 0 1 30 2 33 90.91
Grassland 0 0 2 1 34 37 91.89
Total 33 40 36 32 40 181
Producer Accuracy (%) 93.34 85.00 91.67 93.75 85.00
Overall Accuracy = 89.50%; Kappa Statistics = 0.84; KHisto = 0.91; KLoc = 0.92
January 2019 Bare Land 34 1 0 0 0 35 97.14
Built-Up Area 2 46 0 0 0 48 95.83
Cultivated Land 0 0 31 1 1 33 93.94
Forest Cover 1 1 1 29 0 32 90.63
Grassland 0 0 2 1 30 33 90.91
Total 37 48 34 31 31 181
Producer Accuracy (%) 91.89 95.83 91.18 93.55 96.77
Overall Accuracy = 93.92%; Kappa Statistics = 0.91; KHisto = 0.93; KLoc = 0.98

Description of Landsat datasets

S/N Instrument Scene Identifier Bands Stacked Cloud Cover (%) Geometric RMSE Model (m)
1 Landsat 7 ETM+ LE71900551999347AGS01 1–8 11.00 3.59
2 Landsat 7 ETM+ LE71900552009326ASN00 1–8 8.00 4.22
3 Landsat 8 OLI LC81900552019010LGN00 1–9 13.02 7.52

Temporal change/percentage of land cover classes for the study period

Land Cover 1999 2009 2019
Area [km2] Area [%] Area [km2] Area [%] Area [km2] Area [%]
Bare Land 513.230 50.97 379.888 37.73 87.207 8.66
Built-Up Area 19.886 1.98 163.612 16.25 489.400 48.61
Cultivated Land 5.466 0.54 16.351 1.62 106.000 10.52
Forest Cover 102.445 10.18 135.024 13.41 143.644 14.27
Grassland 365.837 36.33 311.989 30.99 180.613 17.94
TOTAL 1,006.864 100.00 1,006.864 100.00 1,006.864 100.00
eISSN:
2391-8152
Language:
English
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Journal Subjects:
Computer Sciences, other, Geosciences, Geodesy, Cartography and Photogrammetry
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