Prediction of the EDT Trends – National and Supranational Activities

Defence capabilities have always been heavily dependent on technological capabilities. This dependence is significantly emphasized nowadays due to the very rapid advancement of science and technology relevant to defence, and especially due to the emergence of disruptive technologies. However, emerging and disruptive technologies are well known throughout human history (fire, wheel, metals, gunpowder, external and internal combustion engines, etc.). Today, the cycle of emergence, application and response to the EDT is much faster, due to globalisation and maturation of information technologies. Smaller countries, because of their modest industrial and technological base at the national level, have problems to follow the emerging and disruptive technologies. In modern civilization, the military is losing its traditional centuries-old role as a privileged customer for purchasing new, technologically advanced products and must face competition in the open market. In this case, defence must be actively involved in monitoring and predicting technological trends, with an emphasis on disruptive technologies. Countries, especially those with strong armed forces and a long military tradition, have been doing this for a long time, but supranational activities (NATO and the EU) are relatively recent. These supranational activities are an important complement to national efforts and it is recommended that they should not be neglected by smaller NATO and EU member states.