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Climate Related Diseases. Current Regional Variability and Projections to the Year 2100

Krzysztof Błażejczyk
Krzysztof Błażejczyk
, 
Jarosław Baranowski
Jarosław Baranowski
 and 
Anna Błażejczyk
Anna Błażejczyk
   | Mar 30, 2018
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Published Online: Mar 30, 2018
Page range: 23 - 36
Received: Oct 09, 2017
Accepted: Jan 31, 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2018-0003
Keywords
© 2018 Krzysztof Błażejczyk et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Fig. 1

Scheme of research (adapted from Gosling et al. 2007).
Scheme of research (adapted from Gosling et al. 2007).

Fig. 2

Mean yearly number (per 100 000 inhabitants) of selected CRD: A – salmonellosis intoxication (1999–2014), B – influenza infections (1973–2014), C – Lyme boreliosis (2003–2014), D – tick born viral encephalitis (TBvE, 1999–2014).
Mean yearly number (per 100 000 inhabitants) of selected CRD: A – salmonellosis intoxication (1999–2014), B – influenza infections (1973–2014), C – Lyme boreliosis (2003–2014), D – tick born viral encephalitis (TBvE, 1999–2014).

Fig. 3

Mean yearly number (per 100 000 inhabitants, 1999–2012) of skin cancers morbidity (A) and mortality (B).
Mean yearly number (per 100 000 inhabitants, 1999–2012) of skin cancers morbidity (A) and mortality (B).

Fig. 4

Mean yearly number (per 100 000 inhabitants, 1999–2012) of skin melanoma morbidity (A) and mortality (B).
Mean yearly number (per 100 000 inhabitants, 1999–2012) of skin melanoma morbidity (A) and mortality (B).

Fig. 5

Projected changes of yearly totals of global solar radiation (Kglob), mean yearly air temperature (Tavg), percentage of days with great heat stress (GHS) and precipitation totals (RR) in consecutive decades of 21st century due to A1B, A2 and B1 SRES scenarios.
Projected changes of yearly totals of global solar radiation (Kglob), mean yearly air temperature (Tavg), percentage of days with great heat stress (GHS) and precipitation totals (RR) in consecutive decades of 21st century due to A1B, A2 and B1 SRES scenarios.

Fig. 6

Projected, for the consecutive decades of 21st century, CRD indicators: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections, skin cancer mortality, skin cancer morbidity, respiratory mortality, influenza morbidity, overcooling deaths, salmonellosis intoxications.
Projected, for the consecutive decades of 21st century, CRD indicators: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections, skin cancer mortality, skin cancer morbidity, respiratory mortality, influenza morbidity, overcooling deaths, salmonellosis intoxications.

Fig. 7

Spatial distribution of projected risks (per 100 000 inhabitants) of selected CRD at the last decade of 21st century due to A1B SRES scenario, A – Lyme boreliosis, B – influenza, C – skin cancer morbidity, D – skin cancer mortality, E – circulatory mortality, F – respiratory mortality.
Spatial distribution of projected risks (per 100 000 inhabitants) of selected CRD at the last decade of 21st century due to A1B SRES scenario, A – Lyme boreliosis, B – influenza, C – skin cancer morbidity, D – skin cancer mortality, E – circulatory mortality, F – respiratory mortality.

Projected changes of the indicators of climate related diseases in Poland for the years 2081–2100.

Health indicatorTendencyConfidence of projections
Skin cancer morbidity9–10% increasegreat
Skin cancer mortality2–3% increasegreat
Lyme boreliosis infections22–68% increasegreat
Circulatory mortality3–4% increasemoderate
Salmonellosis intoxications1–3% increasesmall
Respiratory mortality7–17% decreasegreat
Overcooling deaths23–50% decreasemoderate
Influenza infections23–68% decreasemoderate

Regression models of climate related mortality and morbidity.

Regression modelMean absolute errorDetermination coefficient (%)Confidencelevel (%)
Skin cancer morbidity / 100 000
–60.8 + 0.05311·Kglob_summer2.8354.8895
Skin cancer mortality / 100 000
1.3 + 0.001597·Kglob_summer0.10239.0795
Lyme boreliosis morbidity / 100 000
–59.1 + 3.71·Tmin_avg_XI–III + 0.046·Prec_totals –IX + 3.25·Tmax_avg_–IX5.3940.9685
Salmonellosis intoxications / 100 000
–307.8 – 9.42·Tmin_avg_summer – 1.9·Tmax>25_summer + 29.4·Tavg_summer – 6.6·Tmax_avg_summer + 4.9·Tmax_summer13.4630.5995
Influenza morbidity / 100 000
18178.5 – 1598.9·Tavg_winter – 12.3·Tmax<0_winter + 1807.2·Tmin_avg_winter – 1799.7·Tmax_avg_winter2094.5625.4295
Circulatory mortality / 100 000
325.6 + 4.2·Tmin<–10 – 1.6·Tmax>25 – 2.1·Sultry + 12.9·Tmin_avg – 93.3·Tmax_avg + 143.9·Tavg49.5722.7985
Respiratory mortality / 100 000
72.1 – 45.0·Tśr_winter + 17.4·Tmax_avg_winter – 1.1·Tavg + 21.7·Tmin_avg_winter – 0.5·Tmax<0 + 0.044·Tmin<–10 + 1.0·v>8_winter4.2648.1095
Overcooling deaths
183.0 + 13.2·Tmin_winter – 3.8·Tmin_avg_winter72.3424.4890

Ecological and health effects of climate elements

Climate elementMeasureEcological effectsHealth effectsSelected references
Solar radiationUV increaseDestruction of living cellsIncrease in skin cancerLityńska et al. 2001, Lucas et al. 2006, Błażejczyk, Błażejczyk 2012b
InsolationNo dataSolar stroke Road accidentsJendritzky 1995, Błażejczyk et al. 1999
Air temperatureHeat wavesIncrease in tropospheric ozone concentrationIncrease in mortality Heat stroke Dehydration AsthmaDesai 2002, Kuchcik 2003, , Diazet al. 2006, d’Ipoliti et al. 2010, Baccini et al. 2011,
Cold wavesIncrease in PM10 and SO2Overcooling Respiratory system Accidents AsthmaDonaldson, Keatinge 1997, Eurowinter Group 1997, Gyllerup 1998, Eng, Mercer 1998, Analitiset al. 2008
Hot summersTicks gradation Water pollutionDigestive intoxications Vector born diseasesBłażejczyk & McGregor 2008, Błażejczyk 2009, Michelozzi et al. 2009, Błażejczyk, Błażejczyk 2012a
Warm wintersEarly flowering and pollensIncrease in allergies and asthma Early boreliosis infectionsSiuda 1993, Kiewra et al. 2004, Lindgren, Jaenson 2006
PrecipitationHeavy rainsFlooding, pollution of drinking water, bad road conditionsDigestive intoxication Drownings Road accidentsMączyński 1972, Kuchcik 1998, Confalonieri et al. 2007, Błażejczyk 2009, Skotak 2010,Błażejczyk, Błażejczyk 2012b
DroughtsAir pollution, AllergensAsthma AllergiesMałolepszy 1996, Peternel et al. 2004
WindCalmsAir pollution increaseAsthma Respiratory system disordersThompson et al. 1996, Samoliński et al. 2009,
Strong windsDestruction of building and treesFatal accidents Nervous system troublesKeatinge, Donaldson 1998, Keatinge 2002
Air pressureExtreme pressure Changes in pressureNo dataCirculatory system and nervous system disordersHuszcza 1951, Kozłowska-Szczęsna et al. 2004
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