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Fig. 1

Framework of our proposed three stage methodology.
Framework of our proposed three stage methodology.

Fig. 2

Illustrative Boolean minimisation process.
Illustrative Boolean minimisation process.

Analysis of schedule performance for eight delayed major work packages.

Serial no.Package nameEquipment supply scheduleErection activity schedule
Latest allowable dateActual dateDelay, in monthsLatest allowable dateActual dateDelay, in months
1Primary reformer30 May 201221 November 2012614 July 201215 November 20125
2Process air compressor28 March 201220 June 201232 October 201231 December 20123
3Secondary reformer13 April 201216 June 2012229 October 201215 February 20134
4Cryogenic purifier16 April 201211 February 2012No delay29 October 201215 February 20134
5Refrigeration compressor3 April 201225 October 2012629 October 201215 February 20134
6Electrical substation25 January 20123 August 2011No delay26 April 201219 September 20124
7Piping network5 March 201115 January 2011No delay3 September 201215 November 20123
8Insulation27 August 201115 December 2011429 October 201224 February 20134

Setting thresholds for causal and observed variables.

Serial no.VariableScaleSetting thresholds and variable values
1Fund management (Funds)Dichotomous‘0’ for ineffective fund management resulting in delays (material procurement and labour sourcing)‘1’ for effective fund management resulting in no delays (material procurement and labour sourcing)
2Labour productivity (Labour)Dichotomous‘0’ for low labour productivity resulting in either rework or delay in activity completion time‘1’ for labour productivity in cases of schedule recovery
3Activity sequencing (ActSeq)Trichotomous‘0’ for no delay in equipment supply but delay in erection activities, resulting in overall delay in completing the work package‘1’ for either of the following cases:(a) No delay in either equipment supply or erection activities, resulting in overall work package completion on time(b) Delay in equipment supply, but no delay in erection activities, resulting in delay for completing work package equalling the delay in equipment supply only.‘2’ for recovering schedule slippage during erection in those cases where equipment supply was delayed
4Supply sequencing (SupSeq)Trichotomous‘0’ for delay in equipment supply for period equal to or more than the overall project delay of 4 months‘1’ for delay in equipment supply for period less than the overall project delay of 4 months‘2’ for no delay in equipment supply
5Work package schedule performance (observed variable)Dichotomous‘0’ for delay in package completion‘1’ for no delay in package completion

Completion status of the projects.

Unit locationMonth of approvalOriginal cost in equivalents of USD million (approx.)Month of commissioningTime overrun (months)Cost overrun (percentage)
Location 1January 2010215.7January 2013NilNil
Location 2January 2010215.4January 2013NilNil
Location 3January 2010246.4April 20134Nil

Comparison between the two EPC contractors.

Comparison itemEPC contractor at Locations 1 and 2EPC contractor at Location 3
Country experienceLarge Indian conglomerate having many decades of country experience and multiple ongoing projects in the country at any point in timeReputed international conglomerate with extensive global experience but limited Indian experience
Basic and detailed engineering capabilityGood, worked on Haldor Topsoe technology prevalent in IndiaExcellent, vast international experience on KBR technology
Contract management systemsRobust systems, extensive experience in handling Indian public sector enterprises and domestic contractorsGood systems, relatively less experienced in Indian conditions
Project management systemsRobust project management systems, fine-tuned to the country contextRobust and conventional project management systems
Approach to resource managementStrength of available in-house erection staff and resources, lesser dependency on erection subcontractorsMore dependent upon erection subcontractors

Interpretive data table developed using case data and thresholds.

Package IDPackage nameFund managementLabour productivityActivity sequencingSupply sequencingObserved variable
1Primary reformer01200
2Secondary reformer10110
3Process air compressor00110
4Cryogenic purifier10120
5Refrigeration compressor01200
6HVAC10121
7Gasification plant10121
8Electrical substation10020
9Piping network10020
10Insulation00100
11Automation (E&I)10121

Multi-value truth table with contradictions.

Fund managementLabour productivityActivity sequencingSupply sequencingObserved variablePackage names
01200Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor
10110Secondary reformer
00110Process air compressor
1012CCryogenic purifier, HVAC, Gasification plant, Automation (E&I)
10020Electrical substation and Piping network
00100Insulation

Contradiction-free multi-value truth table.

Fund managementLabour productivityActivity sequencingSupply sequencingTechnology stabilisationObserved variablePackage names
012010Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor
101110Secondary reformer
001110Process air compressor
101200Cryogenic purifier
101211HVAC, Gasification plant, Automation (E&I)
100210Electrical substation, Piping network
001010Insulation

Results of Boolean minimisation (using Tosmana software, version 1.302).

Explain observed variableTerms
0ActSeq{0,2} +SupSeq{0,1} +Techstab{0}
(Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor + Electrical substation, Piping network)(Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor + Secondary reformer + Process air compressor + Insulation)(Cryogenic purifier)
1ActSeq{1}*SupSeq{2}*Techstab{1}
(HVAC, Gasification plant, Automation E&I)
0 and 1Funds{0,1}
(Primary reformer, Refrigeration compressor + Secondary reformer + Process air compressor + Cryogenic purifier + HVAC, Gasification plant, Automation E&I + Electrical substation, Piping network + Insulation)
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