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Carbon Leakage in the context of increasing the EU greenhouse gas emission reduction targets – the ways the EU and global emission behave and what influences its scale


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Figure 1

GHG’s emission reduction targets in the non-ETS sectors for each EU Member State in 2020 and 2030 relative to 2005 (%)Source: Based on Decision 2009/406 /EC*and Regulation (EU) 2018/842 (Effort Sharing Regulation).* See Decision No 406/2009/EC.
GHG’s emission reduction targets in the non-ETS sectors for each EU Member State in 2020 and 2030 relative to 2005 (%)Source: Based on Decision 2009/406 /EC*and Regulation (EU) 2018/842 (Effort Sharing Regulation).* See Decision No 406/2009/EC.

Figure 2

Emission reduction targets in the non-ETS sectors for each EU Member State for 2030 (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study
Emission reduction targets in the non-ETS sectors for each EU Member State for 2030 (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study

Figure 3

Total emission in the EU in different scenarios [MtCO2eq.]Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Total emission in the EU in different scenarios [MtCO2eq.]Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 4

Deviation of total emission from the baseline in scenarios with and without ETP in the EU (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Deviation of total emission from the baseline in scenarios with and without ETP in the EU (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 5

Deviation of total emission from the baseline in versions with and without technical progress in rest of the world regions (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Deviation of total emission from the baseline in versions with and without technical progress in rest of the world regions (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 6

Leakage rate in different policy scenarios (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Leakage rate in different policy scenarios (%)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 7

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in 2025 (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in 2025 (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 8

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in 2030 (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in 2030 (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 9

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG40/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG40/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 10

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG45/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG45/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 11

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG40/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG40/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 12

Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG45/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of change in greenhouse gases emission in GHG45/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 13

Change in output in the EU and rest of the world countries by industry (mln USD 2011)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Change in output in the EU and rest of the world countries by industry (mln USD 2011)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 14

Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG40/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG40/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 15

Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG45/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG45/MSR scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 16

Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG40/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG40/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 17

Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG45/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Decomposition of ‘carbon intensity channel’ impact on emission in GHG45/MSR/ETP scenario (MtCO2eq)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 18

Leakage rate by sector, no energy-saving technical progress action scenarios in 2030 (rate)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Leakage rate by sector, no energy-saving technical progress action scenarios in 2030 (rate)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Figure 19

Carbon leakage rates by sector, scenarios with energy technical progress (rate)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results
Carbon leakage rates by sector, scenarios with energy technical progress (rate)Source: CAKE/KOBiZE own study based on d-PLACE model results

Types of scenarios and models used for analysis

GHG’s emission reduction target for EU-28
ScenarioTotal GHG’s emission reduction in 2030 compared to 1990EU ETS in 2030 compared to 2005non-ETS in 2030 compared to 2005Market Stability Reserve in EU ETS
Type I – ‘without energy technical progress’Version of model without exogenous change in energy use (based on conservative assumptions)
GHG4040%43%30%Not included
GHG40/MSR40%43%30%Included
GHG45/MSR45%48%36%Included
Type II – ‘with energy technical progress (ETP)Version of model in which exogenous change in energy use (motivated by energy-saving technical progress) is taken into account (based on EU Reference Scenario 2016* and World Energy Outlook**)
GHG40/ETP40%43%30%Not included
GHG40/MSR/ETP40%43%30%Included
GHG45/MSR/ETP45%48%36%Included
eISSN:
2353-8589
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
4 times per year
Journal Subjects:
Life Sciences, Ecology