<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The scenario forecasting technique for assessing changes of water balance components of the northern river basins due to possible climate change was developed. Three IPCC global emission scenarios corresponding to different possible scenarios for economic, technological, political and demographic development of the human civilization in the 21<sup>st</sup> century were chosen for generating climate change projections by an ensemble of 16 General Circulation Models with a high spatial resolution. The projections representing increments of monthly values of meteorological characteristics were used for creating 3-hour meteorological time series up to 2063 for the Northern Dvina River basin, which belongs to the pan-Arctic basin and locates at the north of the European part of Russia. The obtained time series were applied as forcing data to drive the land surface model SWAP to simulate possible changes in the water balance components due to different scenarios of climate change for the Northern Dvina River basin</p></abstract>

The scenario forecasting technique for assessing changes of water balance components of the northern river basins due to possible climate change was developed. Three IPCC global emission scenarios corresponding to different possible scenarios for economic, technological, political and demographic development of the human civilization in the 21st century were chosen for generating climate change projections by an ensemble of 16 General Circulation Models with a high spatial resolution. The projections representing increments of monthly values of meteorological characteristics were used for creating 3-hour meteorological time series up to 2063 for the Northern Dvina River basin, which belongs to the pan-Arctic basin and locates at the north of the European part of Russia. The obtained time series were applied as forcing data to drive the land surface model SWAP to simulate possible changes in the water balance components due to different scenarios of climate change for the Northern Dvina River basin

Application of a technique for scenario prediction of climate change impact on the water balance components of northern river basins

Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkina St.3, 119333 Moscow, Russia

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

The scenario forecasting technique for assessing changes of water balance components of the northern river basins due to possible climate change was developed....

Application of a technique for scenario prediction of climate change impact on the water balance components of northern river basins

Published Online: Aug 15, 2014

Page range: 197 - 208

Received: Sep 12, 2012

Accepted: Mar 17, 2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2014-0025

Keywords
Water balance components, Climate change scenarios, Land surface - atmosphere interactions, Physicallybased land surface modeling, Global data sets, Northern river basins

© 2014

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Application of a technique for scenario prediction of climate change impact on the water balance components of northern river basins

Published Online: Aug 15, 2014

Page range: 197 - 208

Received: Sep 12, 2012

Accepted: Mar 17, 2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2014-0025

KeywordsWater balance components, Climate change scenarios, Land surface - atmosphere interactions, Physicallybased land surface modeling, Global data sets, Northern river basins

© 2014

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
Water balance components, Climate change scenarios, Land surface - atmosphere interactions, Physicallybased land surface modeling, Global data sets, Northern river basins