<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the analysis shows that the unanticipated changes in oil prices immediately led to a decline in the level of their foreign exchange reserves. The trend is also decreasing. The model predicts a continued degradation of these reserves if oil prices remain low. In these conditions, the CEMAC could experience a currency crisis if economic policies implemented in this region do not lead to a return of economic growth.</p></abstract>

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the analysis shows that the unanticipated changes in oil prices immediately led to a decline in the level of their foreign exchange reserves. The trend is also decreasing. The model predicts a continued degradation of these reserves if oil prices remain low. In these conditions, the CEMAC could experience a currency crisis if economic policies implemented in this region do not lead to a return of economic growth.

Forecasting CEMAC’s foreign exchange reserves in presence of unanticipated changes in oil prices: an interrupted time series modelling

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that...

Forecasting CEMAC’s foreign exchange reserves in presence of unanticipated changes in oil prices: an interrupted time series modelling

Published Online: May 22, 2019

Page range: 65 - 83

Received: Feb 13, 2018

Accepted: Mar 30, 2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0014

Keywords
oil prices, CEMAC countries, foreign exchange reserves, interrupted time series analysis

© 2019 Giscard Assoumou-Ella, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Forecasting CEMAC’s foreign exchange reserves in presence of unanticipated changes in oil prices: an interrupted time series modelling

Published Online: May 22, 2019

Page range: 65 - 83

Received: Feb 13, 2018

Accepted: Mar 30, 2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0014

Keywordsoil prices, CEMAC countries, foreign exchange reserves, interrupted time series analysis

© 2019 Giscard Assoumou-Ella, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Keywords
oil prices, CEMAC countries, foreign exchange reserves, interrupted time series analysis