<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p> Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible replication of human brain dynamics that reproduces human behavior. If created, WBE would have significant impact on human society, and forecasts frequently place WBE as arriving within a century. However, WBE would be a complex technology with a complex network of prerequisite technologies. Most forecasts only consider a fraction of this technology network. The unconsidered portions of the network may contain bottlenecks, which are slowly-developing technologies that would impede the development of WBE. Here I describe how bottlenecks in the network can be non-obvious, and the merits of identifying them early. I show that bottlenecks may be predicted even with noisy forecasts. Accurate forecasts of WBE development must incorporate potential bottlenecks, which can be found using detailed descriptions of the WBE technology network. Bottlenecks identification can also increase the impact of WBE researchers by directing effort to those technologies that will immediately affect the timeline of WBE development</p></abstract>

Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible replication of human brain dynamics that reproduces human behavior. If created, WBE would have significant impact on human society, and forecasts frequently place WBE as arriving within a century. However, WBE would be a complex technology with a complex network of prerequisite technologies. Most forecasts only consider a fraction of this technology network. The unconsidered portions of the network may contain bottlenecks, which are slowly-developing technologies that would impede the development of WBE. Here I describe how bottlenecks in the network can be non-obvious, and the merits of identifying them early. I show that bottlenecks may be predicted even with noisy forecasts. Accurate forecasts of WBE development must incorporate potential bottlenecks, which can be found using detailed descriptions of the WBE technology network. Bottlenecks identification can also increase the impact of WBE researchers by directing effort to those technologies that will immediately affect the timeline of WBE development

Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development

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Journal of Artificial General Intelligence

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

{"article-title":"Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development"}

Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible replication of human brain dynamics that reproduces human behavior. If created, WBE would have significant impact...

Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development

Published Online: Apr 25, 2014

Page range: 153 - 163

Received: Jun 01, 2013

Accepted: Dec 09, 2013

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jagi-2013-0009

Keywords
whole brain emulation, forecasting, bottlenecks, technology network

© by Jeff Alstott

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development

Published Online: Apr 25, 2014

Page range: 153 - 163

Received: Jun 01, 2013

Accepted: Dec 09, 2013

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jagi-2013-0009

Keywordswhole brain emulation, forecasting, bottlenecks, technology network

© by Jeff Alstott

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Keywords
whole brain emulation, forecasting, bottlenecks, technology network