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Figure 1

Layoff procedure in the Spanish labor jurisdiction.Source: Authors’ own elaboration.Notes:a. Out-of-court settlements are resolved in Spain by the “MAC” units (“Mediation, Arbitration and Conciliation Units”). The majority of out-of-court settlements resolved with an agreement between the employer and the employee end up with the effective firing of the employee. Settlements ended without an agreement are the main group of dismissal conflicts which arrive to the labor courts. Following the data of the Ministry of Employment and Social Security, there was a total of 220,095 out-of-court settlements in 2014, of which 101,426 ended with agreement between the employer and the employee.b. In 2014, the number of dismissals resolved at the labor court was 118,225. This amount is calculated by adding the number of pre-trial settlements with agreement, the dismissals finally ruled by a labor court, and the number of cases withdrawn (including tacit withdrawals and voluntary dismissal of action by the parties).c. The number of pre-trial layoff settlements in 2014 was 48,508.d. In 2014, the number of dismissals resolved at the trial level in the labor courts was 42,992, of which a 78% were dismissals ruled as “unfair” (in favor of the employee).e. In 2014, 26,725 dismissals were withdrawn (thus, they were not resolved by a judge in a trial) as a result of formal failures, tacit withdrawals, and voluntary dismissal of action by the parties.
Layoff procedure in the Spanish labor jurisdiction.Source: Authors’ own elaboration.Notes:a. Out-of-court settlements are resolved in Spain by the “MAC” units (“Mediation, Arbitration and Conciliation Units”). The majority of out-of-court settlements resolved with an agreement between the employer and the employee end up with the effective firing of the employee. Settlements ended without an agreement are the main group of dismissal conflicts which arrive to the labor courts. Following the data of the Ministry of Employment and Social Security, there was a total of 220,095 out-of-court settlements in 2014, of which 101,426 ended with agreement between the employer and the employee.b. In 2014, the number of dismissals resolved at the labor court was 118,225. This amount is calculated by adding the number of pre-trial settlements with agreement, the dismissals finally ruled by a labor court, and the number of cases withdrawn (including tacit withdrawals and voluntary dismissal of action by the parties).c. The number of pre-trial layoff settlements in 2014 was 48,508.d. In 2014, the number of dismissals resolved at the trial level in the labor courts was 42,992, of which a 78% were dismissals ruled as “unfair” (in favor of the employee).e. In 2014, 26,725 dismissals were withdrawn (thus, they were not resolved by a judge in a trial) as a result of formal failures, tacit withdrawals, and voluntary dismissal of action by the parties.

Figure 2

Proportion of economic dismissals over all dismissals.Source: Spanish Ministry of Employment.
Proportion of economic dismissals over all dismissals.Source: Spanish Ministry of Employment.

Figure 3

Percentage of labor court judgments ruling that the dismissal is fair.Source: Authors’ own elaboration based on data provided by the CGPJ.
Percentage of labor court judgments ruling that the dismissal is fair.Source: Authors’ own elaboration based on data provided by the CGPJ.

Figure 4

Marginal effect of reforms, unemployment, and profitability on labor court rulings declaring dismissals/layoffs as fair.
Marginal effect of reforms, unemployment, and profitability on labor court rulings declaring dismissals/layoffs as fair.

Figure A1

Proportion of magistrates belonging to professional associations.
Proportion of magistrates belonging to professional associations.

Dismissals: initiation, settlements and effective firing costs

Truthful dismissalsDisguised
EconomicDisciplinaryAs economic
Initiated1+βr(π,μ)δr>$1+{{\beta }^{r}}\left( \pi ,\mu \right){{\delta }^{r}}>$Always1+βr(π,μ)δr$1+{{\beta }^{r}}\left( \pi ,\mu \right){{\delta }^{r}}\le $
>τrrd(cucf)Xer(π,μ)$>\frac{{{\tau }^{r}}-{{r}^{d}}}{\left( {{c}^{u}}-{{c}^{f}} \right)X_{e}^{r}\left( \pi ,\mu \right)}$τrτd(cucf)Xer(π,μ)$\le \frac{{{\tau }^{r}}-{{\tau }^{d}}}{\left( {{c}^{u}}-{{c}^{f}} \right)X_{e}^{r}\left( \pi ,\mu \right)}$
SettlementXer(μ)<Xwr(μ)$X_{e}^{r}\left( \mu \right)<X_{w}^{r}\left( \mu \right)$Xed(μ)<Xwd(μ)$X_{e}^{d}\left( \mu \right)<X_{w}^{d}\left( \mu \right)$Always
Effective firing costscu+τd${{c}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{d}}$
If settledXwr(μ)cf+[1Xwr(μ)]cu+τr$X_{w}^{r}\left( \mu \right){{c}^{f}}+\left[ 1-X_{w}^{r}\left( \mu \right) \right]{{c}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{r}}$[1Xwd(μ)]cu+τd$\left[ 1-X_{w}^{d}\left( \mu \right) \right]{{c}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{d}}$
At labor courtXer(π,μ)cf+[1Xer(π,μ)]cu+τr$X_{e}^{r}\left( \pi ,\mu \right){{c}^{f}}+\left[ 1-X_{e}^{r}\left( \pi ,\mu \right) \right]{{c}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{r}}$[1Xed(μ)]cu+τd$\left[ 1-X_{e}^{d}\left( \mu \right) \right]{{c}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{d}}$

Main descriptive statistics by province

Court rulingsUnemployment rate

Unemployment rate (national value) shows the average rate of unemployment for the full period. Provincial values represent differences from that national average.

ProfitabilityTemporary employment rateLog number workers under collective dismissalsProportion of companies with more than 200 employeesOut-of-court settlements ratio
National (full period)0.26030.16300.03980.28058.56920.00160.5258
Provincial deviations from the mean
ALMERIA–0.04990.0651–0.03980.1884–2.2744–0.0003–0.1314
CADIZ0.01380.1045–0.03980.0734–0.8296–0.00080.0163
CORDOBA0.04640.07970.01120.1339–1.8571–0.0008–0.0626
GRANADA0.00080.0719–0.02180.1137–1.7881–0.0008–0.0729
HUELVA–0.02560.07080.00820.1877–2.4510–0.0005–0.0397
JAEN0.03780.07340.15240.0942–1.2823–0.0010–0.0181
MALAGA–0.00250.0671–0.03980.0617–0.7456–0.0008–0.1051
SEVILLA0.00590.0594–0.01050.0997–0.5248–0.00020.0468
HUESCA0.0138–0.0616–0.0013–0.0300–1.9673–0.0010–0.4078
TERUEL0.0904–0.05920.0579–0.0414–1.7696–0.0008–0.4256
ZARAGOZA–0.0450–0.0350–0.0340–0.03550.62550.0001–0.3313
ASTURIAS0.0599–0.0184–0.0168–0.01850.5581–0.0004–0.1168
ILLES BALEARS–0.0159–0.0128–0.0398–0.0033–1.1640–0.0004–0.2505
LAS PALMAS–0.04790.0682–0.03490.0565–0.86500.00000.0090
SANTA CRUZ DE TENERIFE–0.07400.0469–0.02680.0523–1.0567–0.00030.0172
CANTABRIA0.0009–0.0396–0.0171–0.03210.0364–0.0004–0.1808
AVILA–0.11090.00360.1450–0.0120–2.4403–0.00120.0710
BURGOS0.0685–0.0400–0.0141–0.0599–0.4829–0.00010.0105
LEON–0.0226–0.01670.0074–0.0229–0.6166–0.0010–0.1287
PALENCIA0.1060–0.03070.0070–0.0552–1.2430–0.0006–0.1260
SALAMANCA0.0079–0.01320.0365–0.0260–1.9131–0.0009–0.1264
SEGOVIA0.0425–0.0445–0.0300–0.0474–2.6397–0.0009–0.0417
SORIA0.0364–0.0647–0.0183–0.0622–2.4441–0.00060.0631
VALLADOLID0.0287–0.02930.0131–0.02960.1799–0.0002–0.0310
ZAMORA–0.0164–0.00670.3171–0.0001–2.7065–0.0013–0.1014
ALBACETE–0.01050.02390.06350.0158–1.3802–0.0009–0.1099
CIUDAD REAL0.01800.02871.41230.0313–2.0382–0.0011–0.0253
CUENCA0.0355–0.01040.2768–0.0016–2.7461–0.00120.0532
GUADALAJARA–0.0221–0.02470.0173–0.0453–2.3618–0.0004–0.0141
TOLEDO–0.07840.01950.13940.0290–1.4898–0.0010–0.0018
BARCELONA–0.0314–0.0210–0.0398–0.08222.01480.00060.2197
GIRONA0.0312–0.0114–0.0398–0.0461–0.6995–0.00060.0870
LLEIDA0.0426–0.0583–0.0378–0.0818–1.6490–0.00080.1113
TARRAGONA0.0388–0.0122–0.0398–0.0108–0.8174–0.00040.0428
ALICANTE–0.09150.0230–0.03790.0601–0.0219–0.0010–0.0450
CASTELLON0.03610.0104–0.03790.0072–0.04950.00060.0519
VALENCIA–0.03220.0102–0.00210.01430.99550.0000–0.0730
BADAJOZ0.03510.06390.02580.1115–1.5900–0.0009–0.0961
CACERES0.05510.03500.02440.0670–2.0785–0.00110.1215
A CORUÑA–0.0189–0.02850.0163–0.0031–0.1954–0.00020.0172
LUGO0.0170–0.05490.0226–0.0118–1.9468–0.0011–0.0427
OURENSE–0.0377–0.0228–0.0017–0.0188–1.9869–0.0008–0.0868
PONTEVEDRA0.0148–0.0013–0.00150.02350.1738–0.00050.0079
MADRID0.0421–0.0391–0.0398–0.06631.48110.00180.0787
MURCIA0.00150.0148–0.01450.0802–0.6336–0.0001–0.0656
NAVARRA0.0138–0.06080.0626–0.03280.60250.00100.0541
ARABA/ALAVA0.0759–0.0559–0.0044–0.0537–0.03100.00060.0205
GIPUZKOA0.0417–0.07560.1014–0.04050.38290.00000.0660
BIZKAIA0.0111–0.0425–0.0398–0.02650.64340.0007–0.0242
LA RIOJA–0.0189–0.0416–0.0177–0.0561–1.0135–0.00090.0848

Determinants of settlementsRobust standard errors (clustered by provinces) in parenthesis.

123456

In column (6), Madrid and Barcelona are excluded.

2010 reform–0.107

p < 0.01

(0.0188)
0.0118 (0.0128)0.0148 (0.0209)0.0211 (0.0127)–0.139

p < 0.01

(0.0372)
–0.129

p < 0.01

(0.0447)
2012 reform0.208

p < 0.01

(0.0163)
0.118

p < 0.01

(0.0172)
0.261

p < 0.01

(0.0172)
0.124

p < 0.01

(0.0183)
0.244

p < 0.01

(0.0588)
0.201

p < 0.01

(0.0463)
Unemployment rate–1.274

p < 0.01

(0.132)
–0.467

p < 0.01

(0.166)
–0.849

p < 0.01

(0.156)
–0.696

p < 0.01

(0.156)
2010 reform

p < 0.1.

Unemployment rate
0.840

p < 0.01

(0.168)
0.777

p < 0.01

(0.183)
2012 reform

p < 0.1.

Unemployment rate
–0.532

p < 0.05

(0.222)
–0.375

p < 0.1.

(0.196)
Profitability0.0106 (0.0157)0.439

p < 0.01

(0.0956)
0.466

p < 0.01

(0.0893)
0.475

p < 0.01

(0.0886)
2010 reform

p < 0.1.

Profitability
–0.107 (0.132)–0.135 (0.153)
2012 reform

p < 0.1.

Profitability
–0.699

p < 0.01

(0.197)
–0.625

p < 0.01

(0.155)
Province fixed effectsYESYESYESYESYESYES
Other controls

Other controls include: temporary employment rate, sectoral distribution of employment, logarithm of the number of workers affected by collective dismissals, proportion of companies with more than 200 employees, proportion of dismissal lawsuits analyzed by professional judges, days of temporary positions at the labor courts per year, and judicial congestion rate.

NOYESNOYESYESYES
Observations13,88010,97613,88010,97610,9768,192
R-squared0.2010.5210.3400.5430.5730.535
# labor courts347343347343343256

Determinants of labor court rulings declaring dismissals/layoffs as fairRobust standard errors (clustered by province) in parenthesis.

123456

In column (6), Madrid and Barcelona are excluded.

2010 reform 2012 reform–0.0012 (0.00598) –0.0339

p < 0.01

(0.00526)
0.0376

p < 0.01

(0.00807) –0.0065 (0.00605)
0.0426

p < 0.01

(0.00479) –0.0088 (0.00590)
0.0385

p < 0.01

(0.0080) 0.00003 (0.0065)
0.0120 (0.0197) 0.00126 (0.0214)0.0288 (0.0187) 0.00138 (0.0278)
Unemployment rate–0.467

p < 0.01

(0.0800)
–0.304

p < 0.05

(0.128)
–0.386

p < 0.01

(0.133)
–0.312

p < 0.05

(0.134)
2010 reform

p < 0.1. Clustered by province.

Unemployment rate
0.137 (0.0836)0.0680 (0.0776)
2012 reform

p < 0.1. Clustered by province.

Unemployment rate Profitability
–0.0036

p < 0.01

(0.0009)
–0.0530 (0.0570)–0.0102 (0.0892) –0.0181 (0.0550)–0.0161 (0.104) –0.0181 (0.0550)
2010 reform

p < 0.1. Clustered by province.

Profitability
–0.177

p < 0.05

(0.0817)
–0.234

p < 0.01

(0.0813)
2012 reform

p < 0.1. Clustered by province.

Profitability
–0.0317 (0.150)–0.0250 (0.151)
Province fixed effectsYESYESYESYESYESYES
Other controls

Other controls include: temporary employment rate, sectoral distribution of employment, logarithm of the number of workers affected by collective dismissals, proportion of companies with more than 200 employees, proportion of dismissal lawsuits analyzed by professional judges, days of temporary positions at the labor courts per year, and judicial congestion rate.

NOYESNOYESYESYES
Observations14.18110.20212.82510.20210.2027.586
R-squared0.0170.0550.0360.0580.0600.056
# labor courts343339343339339255

Severance payments in the theoretical model

FEPWEG
Economic Truthful dismissalsXer(π,μ)Cf+[1Xer(π,μ)]Cu+τr$X_{e}^{r}\left( \pi ,\mu \right){{C}^{f}}+\left[ 1-X_{e}^{r}\left( \pi ,\mu \right) \right]{{C}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{r}}$Xwr(μ)Cf+[1Xwr(μ)]Cu$X_{w}^{r}\left( \mu \right){{C}^{f}}+\left[ 1-X_{w}^{r}\left( \mu \right) \right]{{C}^{u}}$
Disguised as disciplinarycu+τd${{c}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{d}}$cu${{c}^{u}}$
Disciplinary layoffs
Truthful[1Xed(μ)]cu+τd$\left[ 1-X_{e}^{d}\left( \mu \right) \right]{{c}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{d}}$[1Xwd(μ)]cu$\left[ 1-X_{w}^{d}\left( \mu \right) \right]{{c}^{u}}$
Disguised as economiccu+τr${{c}^{u}}+{{\tau }^{r}}$cu${{c}^{u}}$

Effects of EPL reforms

EconomicdismissalsDisciplinarySettlementsFiring costsFair ruling
TruthfulDisguised
Severance payments/
court costs
Fair dismissals ↓unchangedunchanged
Unfair dismissals ↓unchangedunchanged
Cause of economic dismissalsunchanged
Downturns
Firm profitability ↓unchanged
Local labor market conditionsunchanged

Definitions of variables and sources of data

VariableDefinitionScale/UnitPeriodSource
Court rulingsPercentage of labor court judgments ruling that the dismissal was fair or justified%By court, 2004–2015CGPJ
D1 (Reform 2010)Period of enforcement of the 2010 labor market reformDummy2004–2015Self elaboration
D2 (Reform 2012)Period of enforcement of the 2012 labor market reformDummy2004–2015Self elaboration
Unemployment ratePercentage of total workforce which is unemployed and is looking for a paid job (in differences from the average)%By province, 2004–2014Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE)
ProfitabilityReturn on assets (ROA) for the 10% of firms with a lower ROA%By province, 2004–2013Banco de España
Temporary employment ratePercentage of total workforce which has a fixed-term contract%By province, 2004–2014Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE)
Log of the number of workers under collective dismissalsLogarithm of the number of workers affected by collective dismissalsLogarithmBy province, 2004–2014Ministry of Employment and Social Security
Proportion of companies with more than 200 employeesProportion of companies with more than 200 employees over the total number of companies%By province, 2004–2014Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE)
Employment share of servicesPercentage of total workforce working on services sector%By province, 2004–2014Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE)
Employment share of industryPercentage of total workforce working on services sector%By province, 2004–2014Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE)
Employment share of constructionPercentage of total workforce working on services sector%By province, 2004–2014Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE)
Proportion of dismissal lawsuits analyzed (+) byPercentage of labor court judgments ruling that the dismissal was fair or justified%By court, 2004–2015CGPJ
professional judges over totalby professional judges over all the dismissal lawsuits analyzed by all judges
Proportion of days with temporaryProportion of days per 365-days a year with positionsFractionBy court, 2004–2014CGPJ
positions at the labor courts per year Judicial congestion rate (dismissals lawsuits)at the labor courts held by interim judges Ratio between the sum of pending cases in a labor court plus new cases and the cases resolved in the same quarterFractionBy court, 2004–2014CGPJ
Judicial congestion rate (pre-trial settlements)Ratio between the sum of pending settlements in a labor court plus new settlements and the settlements resolved in the same quarter%By court, 2010–2015CGPJ
Out-of-court settlements ratioRatio of the number of out-of- court settlements divided by the sum of those settlements and the total number of dismissal lawsuits%By court, 2004–2015CGPJ

Descriptive statistics

VariableBefore 20102010–2012After 2012
ObsMeanStd. Dev.MinMaxObsMeanStd. Dev.MinMaxObsMeanStd. Dev.MinMax
Court rulings7,4440.27300.1362014,0250.25820.118000.81823,3900.22680.114401
Unemployment rate (in differences)8,328–0.05170.0496–0.13640.13974,1640.05700.0638–0.08590.23722,4290.0910.0658–0.02710.2711
Profitability8,3280.03980.090300.81004,1640.00760.033800.37631,3880.14112527013.5382
Temporary employment rate8,3280.30890.08110.16280.59494,1640.24800.06190.13150.48632,4290.23870.06110.13250.5088
Log of the number of workers under collective dismissals6,9407.92811.71892.833211.75124,1649.20741.25555.46411.20393,4708.92391.37143.989010.9548
Proportion of companies with more than 200 employees8,5780.00170.000900.00404,1640.00150.00080.00030.00322,7760.00160.00080.00020.0032
Employment share of services8,3280.66850.07340.4380.8444,1640.74000.07190.5360.88902,4290.76060.07050.5840.888
Employment share of industry8,3280.16260.06350.0440.3694,1640.14040.05530.0320.34202,4290.13670.05570.0310.279
Employment share of construction8,3280.12060.02760.0580.2394,1640.07730.01770.0410.16702,4290.05890.01170.0330.109
Proportion of dismissal lawsuits analyzed (+) by professional judges over total8,3280.90230.1767014,1640.80360.2736013,4700.84740.250901
Proportion of days with temporary positions at the labor courts per year8,2320.00830.040800.54,1160.01300.051600.25562,7440.00560.034200.2556
Judicial congestion rate (dismissals lawsuits)8,3282.04860.48771134,1642.60380.81731.04448.19580
Judicial congestion rate (pre-trial settlements)8,32815015154,1646.641412.779002853,4706.47275.01710.54445.5116
Out-of-court settlements ratio8,3280.54220.182200.93104,1640.44440.167200.86621,3880.67190.14200.9021