<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>The present study aims to verify the autumn effect in the gold market, first presented 10 years ago by Dirk Baur in the paper “The autumn effect of gold” and to investigate the calendar effects occurring for other precious metals. This empirical research is presented in a way to place the results obtained in the context of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and the more current Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). The study was conducted as an extended reproduction of the Baur study. The main conclusion is that, the autumn effect on the gold market has been reversed and replaced by the winter effect, which is linked to the AMH. An equally interesting calendar effect was observed for silver. Platinum and palladium saw an increase in prices in January, but given the patterns in the gold market, it is very likely that this phenomenon will also change over time.</p>
</abstract>

The present study aims to verify the autumn effect in the gold market, first presented 10 years ago by Dirk Baur in the paper “The autumn effect of gold” and to investigate the calendar effects occurring for other precious metals. This empirical research is presented in a way to place the results obtained in the context of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and the more current Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). The study was conducted as an extended reproduction of the Baur study. The main conclusion is that, the autumn effect on the gold market has been reversed and replaced by the winter effect, which is linked to the AMH. An equally interesting calendar effect was observed for silver. Platinum and palladium saw an increase in prices in January, but given the patterns in the gold market, it is very likely that this phenomenon will also change over time.

The “autumn effect” in the gold market—does it contradict the Adaptive Market Hypothesis?

International Journal of Management and Economics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The present study aims to verify the autumn effect in the gold market, first presented 10 years ago by Dirk Baur in the paper “The autumn effect of gold” and...

The “autumn effect” in the gold market—does it contradict the Adaptive Market Hypothesis?

Article Category: Empirical Paper

Published Online: Apr 18, 2024

Page range: -

Received: Oct 18, 2023

Accepted: Mar 04, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2024-0011

Keywords
investing, calendar effect, precious metals

© 2024 Marcin Potrykus et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The “autumn effect” in the gold market—does it contradict the Adaptive Market Hypothesis?

Article Category: Empirical Paper

Published Online: Apr 18, 2024

Page range: -

Received: Oct 18, 2023

Accepted: Mar 04, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2024-0011

Keywordsinvesting, calendar effect, precious metals

© 2024 Marcin Potrykus et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
investing, calendar effect, precious metals