Detecting Shocks in The Economic Development Dynamics of Selected Countries

The paper examines the development of the Polish economy as well as the economies of selected countries in the period from 2001 to 2012. For that purpose, models based on the GDP growth in particular countries were built. A comparative analysis of the development of economies in the countries concerned (the United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, France, Poland, the Netherlands), based on a specially built full-factor multivariate GARCH model, is presented. The theory of the construction of a full-factor multivariate GARCH model and its estimation method are discussed. In the paper, a multivariate GARCH model where the covariance matrix is always positive, definite and the number of parameters is relatively small compared to other multivariate models is proposed. The causality of the impact that economies exert on one another is examined and the occurrence of the contagion effect is verified by means of the Forbes and Rigobon test.