Evaluating the Development Path of Manufacturing Industry Under Carbon Neutralisation

China’s manufacturing industry faces the dual imperatives of supporting economic growth while reducing emissions to achieve national carbon neutrality targets. This study analyses the potential for decarbonisation across manufacturing sub-sectors. Using factor analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, it assesses industries based on foundational advantages, growth prospects, and sustainability. The results rank sub-sectors and identify promising areas like eco-friendly equipment and agricultural processing. However, carbon-intensive industries require urgent transformation. To optimise China’s industrial structure for low-carbon development, coordinated efforts across policy, industry, and enterprise are needed. Supportive regulations, industrial integration, and technology adoption can incentivise green manufacturing. By strategically promoting circular economy models, China can enhance quality and efficiency, convert waste into value, and contribute to global climate action. This study provides insights into aligning manufacturing growth with carbon neutrality in the new economic era.