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The Looming Central and Eastern European Real Convergence Club. Do Implicit Tax Rates Play a Part?


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Figure 1

The evolution of the GDP in selected CEE countries (%)Source: Eurostat (2018)
The evolution of the GDP in selected CEE countries (%)Source: Eurostat (2018)

Figure 2

GDP per capitaSource: Eurostat (2018)
GDP per capitaSource: Eurostat (2018)

Figure 3

Gross capital formation (% GDP), FDI (% GDP), Exports (% GDP)Source: Eurostat (2018)
Gross capital formation (% GDP), FDI (% GDP), Exports (% GDP)Source: Eurostat (2018)

Figure 4

Labour productivity and educationSource: Eurostat (2018)
Labour productivity and educationSource: Eurostat (2018)

Figure 5

Unemployment rate in selected CEE countries (%)Source: Eurostat (2018)
Unemployment rate in selected CEE countries (%)Source: Eurostat (2018)

Figure 6

ITR on labour and on consumption (%)Source: Eurostat (2018)
ITR on labour and on consumption (%)Source: Eurostat (2018)

Empirical results of panel regressions (ITR on consumption – GDP per capita)

Dependent variable: ln GDP per capita
Independent variablesModel
(1)(2)(3)(4)
constant0.054064*** (13.82704)0.050927*** (14.10594)0.046495*** (7.882739)0.054804*** (12.38504)
ITR on labour0.000785 (0.223965)−0.006572** (−2.296827)−0.007232* (−1.936511)−0.008363** (−3.047543)
gross fixed capital formation as % of GDP0.011137*** (7.791252)0.011561*** (6.096899)0.005671*** (3.546595)
net FDI as % of GDP0.000653 (1.584466)0.000526 (1.138521)−0.000257 (−0.738284)
inflation rate (%)−0.000518 (−0.511214)−0.000508 (−0.278744)0.001853 (1.361434)
exports of goods and services as % of GDP0.001758 (2.167463)0.002776** (2.539826)−0.000518 (−0.511687)
education0.001057 (0.211763)0.001713 (0.430490)
property rights−0.000389 (−0.376706)0.001037 (1.330365)
freedom from corruption0.001452 (0.970902)0.001294 (0.984987)
political stability and absence of violence/terrorism0.027440 (1.042311)0.059590** (2.316620)
Type of estimationOLSOLSOLSOLS − FE:CS, PE
Model summary
R squared0.0004960.4358930.4850530.836564
F-test for fixed effects6.452260 (0.0000)
Chi-square89.516040 (0.0000)

Empirical results of panel regressions (ITR on labour – labour F-productivity)

Dependent variable: labour productivity
Independent variablesModel
(1)(2)(3)(4)
constant1.176472*** (7.073991)1.159138*** (4.959167)0.962594*** (3.121642)1.356994*** (3.751921)
ITR on labour−0.127108 (−1.068189)−0.073326 (−0.582976)−0.082631 (−0.591717)−0.067955 (−0.466156)
ln net earnings1.805922 (0.780980)1.361713 (0.506566)−6.952759* (−1.873369)
net FDI as % of GDP−0.017343 (−0.794479)−0.017906 (−0.781938)−0.045757* (−1.848574)
ln work force−22.09199** (−2.187657)−23.63137 (−1.527044)−11.62846 (−0.691677)
education0.230587 (0.911089)0.331204 (1.178688)
freedom from corruption0.087352 (1.225601)0.168982* (1.794475)
political stability and absence of violence/terrorism0.160089 (0.120571)0.240086 (0.134896)
Type of estimationOLSOLSOLSOLS − FE:CS, PE
Model summary
R squared0.0117460.0763570.0852150.432698
F-test for fixed effects1.909613 (0.0377)
Chi-square37.268137 (0.0031)

Empirical results of panel regressions (ITR on consumption – labour productivity)

Dependent variable: labour productivity
Independent variablesModel
(1)(2)(3)(4)
constant1.228154*** (7.495786)1.203238*** (5.312363)1.016231*** (3.374199)1.475073*** (4.132826)
ITR on consumption0.238745 (−1.643091)−0.375213** (−2.491453)−0.342861** (−2.006942)−0.334442* (−1.857621)
ln net earnings2.359980 (1.064905)2.644713 (1.004505)−6.514668* (−1.833971)
net FDI as % of GDP−0.022206 (−1.089116)−0.023117 (−1.080595)−0.054292** (−2.235595)
ln work force−21.60831** (−2.214106)−19.99538 (−1.319981)−6.263873 (−0.379454)
education0.185409 (0.752895)0.251259 (0.916263)
freedom from corruption0.061421 (0.869799)0.147285 (1.619881)
political stability and absence of violence/terrorism−0.040470 (−0.031196)0.004003 (0.002319)
Type of estimationOLSOLSOLSOLS − FE:CS, PE
Model summary
R squared0.0273530.1371090.1306610.465192
F-test for fixed effects1.950139 (0.0332)
Chi-square37.894385 (0.0025)

Empirical results of panel regressions (ITR on labour – unemployment rate)

Dependent variable: unemployment rate
Independent variablesModel
(1)(2)(3)(4)
constant−0.257278* (−1.668707)0.333095 (1.539914)−0.102240 (−0.427883)−0.411162 (−1.189058)
ITR on labour−0.163075 (−1.555866)−0.204673** (−2.129772)−0.064789 (−0.658486)−0.033931 (−0.331154)
ln GDP−25.33682*** (−5.326337)−25.64988 (−5.438959)−7.323033 (−0.841516)
net FDI as % of GDP0.002219 (0.116100)−0.019256 (−1.090233)−0.003113 (−0.180235)
inflation rate (%)−0.098132** (−2.207950)−0.102411* (−1.738217)−0.016878 (−0.258313)
ln population0.435765 (0.017769)5.794794 (0.187307)36.36977 (0.676666)
exports of goods and services as % of GDP0.059091 (1.644755)0.085049** (2.346535)0.015900 (0.325546)
education0.387833** (2.174890)0.405549** (2.047153)
rule of law4.292476* (1.943795)3.005146 (1.260339)
political stability and absence of violence/terrorism−1.739273* (−1.817936)−1.279629 (−0.911227)
Type of estimationOLSOLSOLSOLS − FE:CS, PE
Model summary
R squared0.0234070.3052870.4557590.656699
F-test for fixed effects1.755958 (0.0622)
Chi-square35.941300 (0.0047)

Source of data

VariableSource
Unemployment rateWorld Bank online database (2018)
Gross Domestic ProductWorld Bank online database (2018)
Gross Domestic Product per capitaEurostat online database
Labour productivityEurostat online database
Net earningEurostat online database
Labour forceWorld Bank online database (2018)
PopulationEurostat online database
Gross fixed capital formation as % of GDPWorld Bank online database (2018)
Exports of goods and services as % of GDPWorld Bank online database (2018)
Net FDI as % of GDPWorld Bank online database (2018)
Inflation rateWorld Bank online database (2018)
Freedom from corruptionThe Heritage Foundation online data-base (2018)
Property rightsThe Heritage Foundation online data-base (2018)
Political stability and absence of violence/terrorismThe Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2018 Update
Rule of lawThe Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2018 Update
EducationEurostat online database

Empirical results of panel regressions (ITR on labour – GDP per capita)

Dependent variable: ln GDP per capita
Independent variablesModel
(1)(2)(3)(4)
constant0.054060*** (13.68722)0.050654*** (13.57063)0.044323*** (7.451730)0.051197*** (11.07341)
ITR on labour−0.000267 (−0.099449)−0.001157 (−0.531753)−0.000709 (−0.255699)0.000949 (0.425317)
gross fixed capital formation as % of GDP0.010116*** (7.215814)0.010166*** (5.642097)0.004193** (2.535798)
net FDI as % of GDP0.000804* (1.868586)0.000668 (1.378082)−0.000178 (−0.471777)
inflation rate (%)−0.000588 (−0.566179)−0.000403 (−0.215770)0.001833 (1.232545)
exports of goods and services as % of GDP0.001495* (1.817076)0.002408** (2.178382)−0.000631 (−0.574221)
education0.002517 (0.491633)0.004509 (1.049560)
property rights−0.000314 (−0.296678)0.000984 (1.160071)
freedom from corruption0.001701 (1.110678)0.001436 (1.000915)
political stability and absence of violence/terrorism0.028526 (1.055195)0.058371** (2.058949)
Type of estimationOLSOLSOLSOLS − FE:CS, PE
Model summary
R squared0.0000980.4069430.4571770.807484
F-test for fixed effects5.458867 (0.0000)
Chi-square80.855030 (0.0000)

Empirical results of panel regressions (ITR on consumption – unemployment rate)

Dependent variable: unemployment rate
Independent variablesModel
(1)(2)(3)(4)
constant−0.203270 (−1.335573)0.317717 (1.460557)−0.068231 (−0.286392)−0.167997 (−0.475036)
ITR on consumption−0.238274* (−1.747161)−0.220505* (−1.814057)−0.170775 (−1.350053)−0.278673** (−2.054811)
ln GDP−24.13938*** (−5.081301)−25.34919*** (−5.458046)−11.89827 (−1.372951)
net FDI as % of GDP−0.010642 (−0.569761)−0.061644 (−1.487132)−0.008073 (−0.487464)
inflation rate (%)−0.088427* (−1.963787)0.090828** (2.508022)−0.009435 (0.148657)
ln population−12.79587 (−0.525513)−0.090236 (−1.525150)17.77091 (0.338661)
exports of goods and services as % of GDP0.063940* (1.755782)−0.023657 (−1.407357)0.007034 (0.149099)
education0.371631** (2.110251)0.358984* (1.896203)
rule of law3.585494 (1.585540)1.891728 (0.802947)
political stability and absence of violence/terrorism−1.647705* (−1.734700)−0.895700 (−0.661616)
Type of estimationOLSOLSOLSOLS − FE:CS, PE
Model summary
R squared0.0293370.2965750.4665860.682266
F-test for fixed effects2.036423 (0.0261)
Chi-square40.410545 (0.0011)
eISSN:
1804-8285
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
4 times per year
Journal Subjects:
Business and Economics, Political Economics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Law, European Law, other