<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>This paper investigates the long-term cointegration between tourism prices and domestic inflation in Croatia and Slovenia. Those two countries share a common economic history and statistical crispness in the 20th century, the time when Econometrics was not a blossoming topic. The two countries split the common economic path in the 1990s and since then, econometricians have been tackling different development issues and researches. The purpose of the paper is to stress the importance of using a well-designed time-series methodology when dealing with multiple variables estimation and evaluation as well in designing adequate and efficient quantitative models, capable to provide valuable forecasts and predict external shocks. It is assumed that, at the basis of an efficient quantitative model, there is a need of unit root and errors normal distribution testing. To test the covariance of cointegration between tourism prices and domestic inflation, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) model is used on 260 valid monthly time-series observations (~ 22 years). The results have shown that prices of short-stay accommodation in Slovenia are cointegrated with domestic inflation, whereas in Croatia there is no stable cointegration vector on prices of accommodation services if / when analysed using the intervention dummy variables and a constant. Although the results indicate that the research hypothesis is generally confirmed, better and more robust results could be obtained including mean-shift dummy variables in a VAR model.</p></abstract>

This paper investigates the long-term cointegration between tourism prices and domestic inflation in Croatia and Slovenia. Those two countries share a common economic history and statistical crispness in the 20th century, the time when Econometrics was not a blossoming topic. The two countries split the common economic path in the 1990s and since then, econometricians have been tackling different development issues and researches. The purpose of the paper is to stress the importance of using a well-designed time-series methodology when dealing with multiple variables estimation and evaluation as well in designing adequate and efficient quantitative models, capable to provide valuable forecasts and predict external shocks. It is assumed that, at the basis of an efficient quantitative model, there is a need of unit root and errors normal distribution testing. To test the covariance of cointegration between tourism prices and domestic inflation, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) model is used on 260 valid monthly time-series observations (~ 22 years). The results have shown that prices of short-stay accommodation in Slovenia are cointegrated with domestic inflation, whereas in Croatia there is no stable cointegration vector on prices of accommodation services if / when analysed using the intervention dummy variables and a constant. Although the results indicate that the research hypothesis is generally confirmed, better and more robust results could be obtained including mean-shift dummy variables in a VAR model.

An explorative study of tourism time series: Evidence from Slovenia and Croatia

University of Novo mesto Faculty of Economics and Informatics

Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management

Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

{"article-title":"An explorative study of tourism time series: Evidence from Slovenia and Croatia"}

This paper investigates the long-term cointegration between tourism prices and domestic inflation in Croatia and Slovenia. Those two countries share a common...

An explorative study of tourism time series: Evidence from Slovenia and Croatia

Published Online: Dec 21, 2019

Page range: 101 - 116

Received: Oct 03, 2019

Accepted: Nov 30, 2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/crebss-2019-0015

Keywords
Croatia, Slovenia, tourism time-series methodology, VAR models

© 2019 Sergej Gričar et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

An explorative study of tourism time series: Evidence from Slovenia and Croatia

Published Online: Dec 21, 2019

Page range: 101 - 116

Received: Oct 03, 2019

Accepted: Nov 30, 2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/crebss-2019-0015

KeywordsCroatia, Slovenia, tourism time-series methodology, VAR models

© 2019 Sergej Gričar et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
Croatia, Slovenia, tourism time-series methodology, VAR models