<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The paper shows how the original semi endogenous and balanced growth model of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="j_ceej-2019-0009_ref_020_w2aab3b7c84b1b6b1ab2b1c20Aa">Phelps (1966)</xref>, and my extended version of it (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="j_ceej-2019-0009_ref_007_w2aab3b7c84b1b6b1ab2b1b7Aa">Gomulka, 1990</xref>), could be useful in explaining the key ‘stylized facts’ of global long-term growth so far, and in predicting its dynamics in the future. During the last two centuries the sector of R&amp;D and education, producing qualitative changes, has been expanding in the world’s most developed countries much faster than the sector producing conventional goods. The extended model is used to explore and evaluate. the consequences for the global long-term growth of the end of this unbalanced growth, of the completion of the catching up by most of the world’s less developed countries, and of the expected eventual stabilization of the size of the world population. The theory yields a thesis, new in the literature, that the rate of global per capita GDP growth will eventually return to the historically standard very low level, thus implying that the world’s technological revolution is going to be an innovation super-fluctuation.</p></abstract>

The paper shows how the original semi endogenous and balanced growth model of Phelps (1966), and my extended version of it (Gomulka, 1990), could be useful in explaining the key ‘stylized facts’ of global long-term growth so far, and in predicting its dynamics in the future. During the last two centuries the sector of R&D and education, producing qualitative changes, has been expanding in the world’s most developed countries much faster than the sector producing conventional goods. The extended model is used to explore and evaluate. the consequences for the global long-term growth of the end of this unbalanced growth, of the completion of the catching up by most of the world’s less developed countries, and of the expected eventual stabilization of the size of the world population. The theory yields a thesis, new in the literature, that the rate of global per capita GDP growth will eventually return to the historically standard very low level, thus implying that the world’s technological revolution is going to be an innovation super-fluctuation.

A theory of global economic growth in the very long-run: is a grand innovation slowdown inevitable?

Central European Economic Journal

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The paper shows how the original semi endogenous and balanced growth model of Phelps (1966), and my extended version of it (Gomulka, 1990), could be useful in...

$α_{TR}^{} (%)$ \alpha _{TR}^\,(\%)	n₁ (%)	λ
$α_{TR}^{} (%)$ \alpha _{TR}^\,(\%)	n₁ (%)	R/N = 0.01	R/N = 0.02	R/N = 0.03	R/N = 0.04	R/N = 0.05
1	4	1.02	1.04	1.06	1.09	1.13
	6	1.02	1.04	1.07	1.11	1.15
	8	1.02	1.04	1.07	1.12	1.19
2	4	1.01	1.03	1.05	1.06	1.08
	6	1.01	1.03	1.05	1.07	1.08
	8	1.01	1.03	1.05	1.07	1.10
3	4	1.01	1.02	1.04	1.05	1.07
	6	1.01	1.02	1.04	1.06	1.08
	8	1.01	1.02	1.04	1.06	1.09

A theory of global economic growth in the very long-run: is a grand innovation slowdown inevitable?

Published Online: Jun 06, 2020

Page range: 175 - 188

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2019-0009

Keywords
Endogenous growth theory, Phelps, Hat-shaped relationship, Long-term global growth slowdown, Key growth trends, Key growth stylized facts

© 2019 Stanislaw Gomulka, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

The values of λ as implied by (25), given αTR\alpha .{TR}^ , n1, and R/N, and assuming that a =0. 2 and n = 0.7 per cent

A theory of global economic growth in the very long-run: is a grand innovation slowdown inevitable?

Published Online: Jun 06, 2020

Page range: 175 - 188

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2019-0009

KeywordsEndogenous growth theory, Phelps, Hat-shaped relationship, Long-term global growth slowdown, Key growth trends, Key growth stylized facts

© 2019 Stanislaw Gomulka, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

The values of λ as implied by (25), given αTR*\alpha .{TR}^* , n1, and R/N, and assuming that a =0. 2 and n = 0.7 per cent

Keywords
Endogenous growth theory, Phelps, Hat-shaped relationship, Long-term global growth slowdown, Key growth trends, Key growth stylized facts

The values of λ as implied by (25), given αTR\alpha .{TR}^ , n1, and R/N, and assuming that a =0. 2 and n = 0.7 per cent