Influence of seasonal factors in the earned value of construction

Juan Pedro Ruiz-Fernández; Javier Benlloch; Miguel A. López; Nelia Valverde-Gascueña

Open Access

Influence of seasonal factors in the earned value of construction

Juan Pedro Ruiz-Fernández

Javier Benlloch

Miguel A. López

and

Nelia Valverde-Gascueña

| Mar 18, 2019

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences

Volume 4 (2019): Issue 1 (January 2019)

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Page range: 21 - 34

Received: Dec 20, 2018

Accepted: Feb 18, 2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/AMNS.2019.1.00003

Keywords
Seasonal factors, Earned value, Cash flows, Construction

© 2019 J.P. Ruiz-Fernández et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Frequency histogram for percentage certifications. Source: own elaboration.

Percentage of the monthly mean output involving data from completed certifications, data without extreme atypical values, and data without slight atypical values. Source: own elaboration.

Percentage of working days per month in the period 1999-2012. Source: own elaboration.

Percentage of monthly mean output and percentage of monthly mean daylight. Source: own elaboration.

Sample and cohort concerning Castilla-La Mancha (Spain) subsidised housing. Source: own elaboration.

Units	Cohort	Sample	%
Provisional gradings for both public and private subsidised housing (October 98/June 12)	45,175	5,319	11.77
Final gradings for both public and private subsidised housing (Feb. 00/Feb. 13)	37,665	5,101	13.54
Public subsidised housing (99/12)	6,886	5,319	77.24
Public subsidised housing promotions (99/12)	192	161	83.85

Number of certifications per month. Source: own elaboration.

JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC	Mean
244	254	260	260	263	262	262	260	259	250	252	250	256.3

Number of certifications per month and terms of works project implementation. Source: own elaboration.

MONTH	< 25%	25%─50%	50%─75%	75%─100%	SUM
JAN	57	60	71	56	244
FEB	61	55	73	65	254
MAR	64	60	70	66	260
APR	58	64	68	70	260
MAY	63	66	61	73	263
JUN	67	58	59	78	262
JUL	70	59	61	72	262
AUG	62	71	56	71	260
SEP	60	66	61	72	259
OCT	52	76	51	71	250
NOV	49	81	54	68	252
DEC	47	77	60	66	250
MEAN	59.2	66.1	62.1	69.0	256.3

Number of working days per year and month throughout the period of study 1999-2012 for construction companies (Monday to Friday included). Source: own elaboration from “Diario Oficial de Castilla-La Mancha” (Spain) and “Convenios Generales del Sector de la Construcción en España”.

99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	MONTH
19	20	22	22	21	19	20	21	22	21	20	19	20	21	JAN
20	21	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	21	20	20	20	21	FEB
22	23	22	18	20	22	20	22	22	18	21	22	23	22	MAR
20	18	19	22	20	20	21	18	19	22	20	20	19	19	APR
20	21	22	21	21	20	21	21	21	21	20	20	21	21	MAY
22	22	21	20	21	22	22	22	21	21	21	22	21	20	JUN
22	21	22	23	23	22	21	21	22	23	23	22	21	22	JUL
22	22	22	21	20	22	22	22	22	20	21	22	22	22	AUG
22	21	20	21	22	22	22	21	20	22	22	22	22	20	SEP
20	21	22	23	23	20	20	21	22	23	21	20	20	22	OCT
21	21	21	20	20	21	21	21	21	20	21	21	21	21	NOV
21	18	19	20	21	21	19	18	19	21	20	21	20	19	DEC

Sample errors. Source: own elaboration.

Units	Cohort	Sample	%e
Provisional gradings for both public and private subsidised housing (October 98/June 12)	45,175	5,319	1.26
Final gradings for both public and private subsidised housing (Feb. 00/Feb. 13)	37,665	5,101	1.28
Public subsidised housing (99/12)	6,886	5,319	0.64
Public subsidised housing promotions (99/12)	192	161	3.11

k─values for different confidence levels.

k values	1.15	1.28	1.44	1.65	1.96	2.00	2.58
Confidence level	75%	80%	85%	90%	95%	95.5%	99%

Example of change in % of all the month production prices for a given promotion. Source: own elaboration.

Month	Price	Factor	Percentage
March 2012	€10,000	100 · 6/120,000	50%
April 2012	€15,000	100 · 6/120,000	75%
May 2012	€20,000	100 · 6/120,000	100%
June 2012	€35,000	100 · 6/120,000	175%
July 2012	€30,000	100 · 6/120,000	150%
August 2012	€10,000	100 · 6/120,000	50%
Aggregate	€120,000	100 · 6/120,000	600%

Summary statistics for percentage certification data. Source: own elaboration.

Mean	1.000
Standard Error	0.012
Median	0.901
Mode	1.342
Standard deviation	0.678
Sample variance	0.460
Kurtosis	5.779
Asymmetry coefficient	1.637
Range	5.951
Minimum	0.001
Maximum	5.953
Sum	3.076
Confidence level (95%)	0.024
1st quartile: Q₁	0.531
3rd quartile: Q₃	1.323
Interquartile range: Q₃─Q₁	0.793

eISSN:: 2444-8656
Language:: English

Publication timeframe:: Volume Open
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Influence of seasonal factors in the earned value of construction

Published Online: Mar 18, 2019

Page range: 21 - 34

Received: Dec 20, 2018

Accepted: Feb 18, 2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/AMNS.2019.1.00003

Keywords
Seasonal factors, Earned value, Cash flows, Construction

© 2019 J.P. Ruiz-Fernández et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Sample and cohort concerning Castilla-La Mancha (Spain) subsidised housing. Source: own elaboration.

Number of certifications per month. Source: own elaboration.

Number of certifications per month and terms of works project implementation. Source: own elaboration.

Number of working days per year and month throughout the period of study 1999-2012 for construction companies (Monday to Friday included). Source: own elaboration from “Diario Oficial de Castilla-La Mancha” (Spain) and “Convenios Generales del Sector de la Construcción en España”.

Sample errors. Source: own elaboration.

k─values for different confidence levels.

Example of change in % of all the month production prices for a given promotion. Source: own elaboration.

Summary statistics for percentage certification data. Source: own elaboration.

99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	MONTH
19	20	22	22	21	19	20	21	22	21	20	19	20	21	JAN
20	21	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	21	20	20	20	21	FEB
22	23	22	18	20	22	20	22	22	18	21	22	23	22	MAR
20	18	19	22	20	20	21	18	19	22	20	20	19	19	APR
20	21	22	21	21	20	21	21	21	21	20	20	21	21	MAY
22	22	21	20	21	22	22	22	21	21	21	22	21	20	JUN
22	21	22	23	23	22	21	21	22	23	23	22	21	22	JUL
22	22	22	21	20	22	22	22	22	20	21	22	22	22	AUG
22	21	20	21	22	22	22	21	20	22	22	22	22	20	SEP
20	21	22	23	23	20	20	21	22	23	21	20	20	22	OCT
21	21	21	20	20	21	21	21	21	20	21	21	21	21	NOV
21	18	19	20	21	21	19	18	19	21	20	21	20	19	DEC

99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	MONTH
19	20	22	22	21	19	20	21	22	21	20	19	20	21	JAN
20	21	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	21	20	20	20	21	FEB
22	23	22	18	20	22	20	22	22	18	21	22	23	22	MAR
20	18	19	22	20	20	21	18	19	22	20	20	19	19	APR
20	21	22	21	21	20	21	21	21	21	20	20	21	21	MAY
22	22	21	20	21	22	22	22	21	21	21	22	21	20	JUN
22	21	22	23	23	22	21	21	22	23	23	22	21	22	JUL
22	22	22	21	20	22	22	22	22	20	21	22	22	22	AUG
22	21	20	21	22	22	22	21	20	22	22	22	22	20	SEP
20	21	22	23	23	20	20	21	22	23	21	20	20	22	OCT
21	21	21	20	20	21	21	21	21	20	21	21	21	21	NOV
21	18	19	20	21	21	19	18	19	21	20	21	20	19	DEC

Influence of seasonal factors in the earned value of construction

Published Online: Mar 18, 2019

Page range: 21 - 34

Received: Dec 20, 2018

Accepted: Feb 18, 2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/AMNS.2019.1.00003

KeywordsSeasonal factors, Earned value, Cash flows, Construction

© 2019 J.P. Ruiz-Fernández et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Sample and cohort concerning Castilla-La Mancha (Spain) subsidised housing. Source: own elaboration.

Number of certifications per month. Source: own elaboration.

Number of certifications per month and terms of works project implementation. Source: own elaboration.

Number of working days per year and month throughout the period of study 1999-2012 for construction companies (Monday to Friday included). Source: own elaboration from “Diario Oficial de Castilla-La Mancha” (Spain) and “Convenios Generales del Sector de la Construcción en España”.

Sample errors. Source: own elaboration.

k─values for different confidence levels.

Example of change in % of all the month production prices for a given promotion. Source: own elaboration.

Summary statistics for percentage certification data. Source: own elaboration.

Keywords
Seasonal factors, Earned value, Cash flows, Construction

99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	MONTH
19	20	22	22	21	19	20	21	22	21	20	19	20	21	JAN
20	21	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	21	20	20	20	21	FEB
22	23	22	18	20	22	20	22	22	18	21	22	23	22	MAR
20	18	19	22	20	20	21	18	19	22	20	20	19	19	APR
20	21	22	21	21	20	21	21	21	21	20	20	21	21	MAY
22	22	21	20	21	22	22	22	21	21	21	22	21	20	JUN
22	21	22	23	23	22	21	21	22	23	23	22	21	22	JUL
22	22	22	21	20	22	22	22	22	20	21	22	22	22	AUG
22	21	20	21	22	22	22	21	20	22	22	22	22	20	SEP
20	21	22	23	23	20	20	21	22	23	21	20	20	22	OCT
21	21	21	20	20	21	21	21	21	20	21	21	21	21	NOV
21	18	19	20	21	21	19	18	19	21	20	21	20	19	DEC