<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population size based on historical data are presented in the paper. Periodical variables were used in the models proposed in the paper. Moreover, a logistic-type function was used in modelling. The purpose of the paper was to obtain a model describing the world’s population with the lowest possible maximal relative error and possibly the longest period of durability. In this work, 13,244 models from three families models were analyzed. Only a small part of such a large number of models satisfies the conditions of stability. The method of modelling the world’s population size allows to obtain models with maximal relative errors not exceeding 0.5%. Selected models were used to prediction of the world’s population up to 2050. The obtained results were compared with data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.</p></abstract>

Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population size based on historical data are presented in the paper. Periodical variables were used in the models proposed in the paper. Moreover, a logistic-type function was used in modelling. The purpose of the paper was to obtain a model describing the world’s population with the lowest possible maximal relative error and possibly the longest period of durability. In this work, 13,244 models from three families models were analyzed. Only a small part of such a large number of models satisfies the conditions of stability. The method of modelling the world’s population size allows to obtain models with maximal relative errors not exceeding 0.5%. Selected models were used to prediction of the world’s population up to 2050. The obtained results were compared with data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Selected Econometric Methods of Modelling the World’s Population

Econometrics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

{"article-title":"Selected Econometric Methods of Modelling the World\u2019s Population"}

Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population size based on historical data are presented in the paper. Periodical variables were used in...

Selected Econometric Methods of Modelling the World’s Population

Published Online: May 26, 2018

Page range: 34 - 44

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15611/eada.2018.2.03

Keywords
nonlinear models, estimation, maximal relative error, population, forecast

© 2018 Witold Rzymowski et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Selected Econometric Methods of Modelling the World’s Population

Published Online: May 26, 2018

Page range: 34 - 44

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15611/eada.2018.2.03

Keywordsnonlinear models, estimation, maximal relative error, population, forecast

© 2018 Witold Rzymowski et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
nonlinear models, estimation, maximal relative error, population, forecast