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We present a qualitative population growth analysis approach using the Pearl logistic population growth differential equation for a population with the intensity of birth a, stationary size K to instances of fast small random population size extractions proportional to εξn at random time moments τn, where ε is the small positive parameter. Assuming that the intervals τn − τn−1 are independent identically exponentially distributed random variables with the parameter λ / ε, and that ξn are the independent identically distributed positive random variables with the mean h and the variance b2, we analyse the population dynamics and the population asymptotic behaviour. We propose a probabilistic limit theorem based stochastic approximation algorithm for the qualitative analysis of the above model on any finite time interval. At first we derive the linear differential equation for mathematical expectation 𝔼{x(t)} of the population growth and the stochastic Ito differential equation for the normalised deviations (𝔼{x(t)} − x(t))ε−1/2. Assuming that the difference a − λh = εc is sufficiently small we derive the stochastic differential equation for the scaled population growth in accelerated time ε−1Kx(t / ε)and prove that under condition 2c < λ(h2+b2) the population disappears with probability one, otherwise the distribution of the scaled population size with increasing time tends to the Gamma-distribution Γ(k,q) with the shape k = 2c/λ(h2 + b2) and the scale θ = λ(h2 + b2)/2c.

eISSN:
1407-009X
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
6 times per year
Journal Subjects:
General Interest, Mathematics, General Mathematics