The application of a modified Monte Carlo method in the simulation of settlement pattern’s spatial development in the example of Mstów (Śląskie voivodship, Poland)

The first aim of the article is to propose the simulation of the settlement patterns development as an element of spatial planning methodology. In order to conduct such a simulation, a modified Monte Carlo method can be used. It approximates the spatial distribution of a studied phenomenon based on numerical calculations and implemented variables. Referring to previous works in which the method was applied, the author tested it on the village of Mstów. It was assumed that this method could highlight land features that are unreachable using traditional approaches in complex systems analyses.

The second aim was to investigate some of the determinants of contemporary spatial development. The conducted simulation demonstrated features of Mstów settlement pattern and proved determinants in its future development, including: the existence of areas especially predisposed for building, the decreasing number of new buildings being built, the decreasing importance of factors that were relevant in the past, and a significant relevance of the human factor. It was also proven that land development may occur on areas less predisposed to building.