<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The short-term predictions of annual and seasonal discharge derived by a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity and Stochasticity) methodology are presented in this paper. The TIPS method (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="j_johh-2017-0012_ref_024_w2aab2b8c11b1b7b1ab1ac24Aa">Yevjevich, 1984</xref>) is modified in such a way that annual time scale is used instead of daily. The reason of extracting a seasonal component from discharge time series represents an attempt to identify the long-term stochastic behaviour. The methodology is applied for modelling annual discharges at six gauging stations in the middle Danube River basin using the observed data in the common period from 1931 to 2012. The model performance measures suggest that the modelled time series are matched reasonably well. The model is then used for the short-time predictions for three annual step ahead (2013–2015). The annual discharge predictions of larger river basins for moderate hydrological conditions show reasonable matching with records expressed as the relative error from −8% to +3%. Irrespective of this, wet and dry periods for the aforementioned river basins show significant departures from annual observations. Also, the smaller river basins display greater deviations up to 26% of the observed annual discharges, whereas the accuracy of annual predictions do not strictly depend on the prevailing hydrological conditions.</p></abstract>

The short-term predictions of annual and seasonal discharge derived by a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity and Stochasticity) methodology are presented in this paper. The TIPS method (Yevjevich, 1984) is modified in such a way that annual time scale is used instead of daily. The reason of extracting a seasonal component from discharge time series represents an attempt to identify the long-term stochastic behaviour. The methodology is applied for modelling annual discharges at six gauging stations in the middle Danube River basin using the observed data in the common period from 1931 to 2012. The model performance measures suggest that the modelled time series are matched reasonably well. The model is then used for the short-time predictions for three annual step ahead (2013–2015). The annual discharge predictions of larger river basins for moderate hydrological conditions show reasonable matching with records expressed as the relative error from −8% to +3%. Irrespective of this, wet and dry periods for the aforementioned river basins show significant departures from annual observations. Also, the smaller river basins display greater deviations up to 26% of the observed annual discharges, whereas the accuracy of annual predictions do not strictly depend on the prevailing hydrological conditions.

Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

The short-term predictions of annual and seasonal discharge derived by a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity and Stochasticity) methodology are...

Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology

Published Online: Mar 20, 2017

Page range: 165 - 174

Received: Jan 20, 2016

Accepted: Aug 22, 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2017-0012

Keywords
Stochastic modelling, Annual and seasonal hydrological predictions, TIPS method, The middle Danube River basin

© 2017 Milan Stojković et al., published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology

Published Online: Mar 20, 2017

Page range: 165 - 174

Received: Jan 20, 2016

Accepted: Aug 22, 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2017-0012

KeywordsStochastic modelling, Annual and seasonal hydrological predictions, TIPS method, The middle Danube River basin

© 2017 Milan Stojković et al., published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
Stochastic modelling, Annual and seasonal hydrological predictions, TIPS method, The middle Danube River basin