Although new sanctions have been imposed, to varying degrees, on Russia since the debut of the Crimean crisis, few experts are taking the chance of publishing an assessment of the impact these sanctions will have on Russia or the European Union. On one hand, the complexity of the variables involved makes it extremely difficult to predict the outcome of said sanctions; on the other hand, an accurate assessment would make an invaluable tool in the hands of decision makers, no matter if their decisions are made with regards to foreign policy, public policy or the daily business of private companies. This article sets out to examine the context, some of the variables involved and some of the forecasts that have been put forward by various experts, while trying to provide a simplified model for assessing the impact of sanctions enacted by the EU on its own economy.
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