Similarity of Changes in Average Prices of Residential Properties in Europe in 2010-2016

Iwona Dittmann PhD 1
  • 1 Faculty of Finance, University of Economics in Wrocław

Abstract

The aim of the article was to assess the similarities of average price changes in the residential market in 34 European countries in 2010-2016. The first part of the study concerned tendencies of changes in average prices in residential markets in the studied countries, while the second part analyzed co-occurrence of changes in these countries in time. The study covered the period after the first wave of the financial crisis in Europe and took into account the second wave of crisis in several euro area countries. Price indices, trend functions, price ranges, linear correlation coefficients and shape similarity measure were utilized for conducting this study.

European countries, in general, differed with respect to changes in prices in the residential market. 12 countries were characterized by a trend of increasing price indices. 18 countries were classified as correcting countries, as during the studied period they were distinguished by a clear change in trend. Four countries with a downward trend during the study period were also identified. Furthermore, a differentiation between the countries was found due to the values of price ranges during the studied period. Studies of co-occurrence in time were conducted with the use of linear correlation coefficients mainly for groups of rising countries and falling countries. The study was conducted using measures of shape similarity, which allowed for an identification of converging, leading and following markets for some countries.

If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.

  • Akimov A., Stevenson S., Young J., 2015, Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles, Urban Studies, vol. 52, issue 9, p. 1665-1682, http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098014535643.

  • Alvarez L., Bulligan G., A. Cabrero, Ferrara L., Stahl H., 2010, Housing cycles in the major euro area countries, Documentos Ocasionales, no. 1001, Banco de Espana, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1582354

  • Bandt de O., Knetsch T., Peñalosa J., Zollino F., 2010, Housing Markets in Europe: A Macroeconomic Perspective, Springer Berlin Heidelberg

  • Bełej M., 2012, Dynamika zmian cen nieruchomości w aspekcie teorii przejść nieciągłych (Dynamics of Changes in Property Prices in Aspects of Discountionous Chane Theory), Studia i Materiały Towarzystwa Naukowego Nieruchomości, vol. 20, nr 1, Olsztyn, pp.17-28

  • Bełej M., 2013, Catastrophe Theory in Explaining Price Dynamics on the Real Estate Market, Real Estate Management and Valuation, Volume 21, Issue 3, Pages 51-61, DOI 10.2478/remav-2013-0026

  • Bełej M., Kulesza S., 2014, Similarities in Time-Series of Housing Prices on Local Markets in Poland, Real Estate Management and Valuation. Volume 22, Issue 3, Pages 45–53, ISSN (Online) 2300-5289, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2014-0026, October 2014

  • Bełej M., Kulesza S., 2015, The Dynamics Of Time Series Of Real Estate Prices, Real Estate Management and Valuation. Volume 23, Issue 4, Pages 35–43, ISSN (Online) 2300-5289, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/remav-2015-0034, January 2016

  • BIS Residential Property Price database (online: http://www.bis.org/statistics/pp.htm)

  • Bracke P. (2011), How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries, IMF Working Paper WP/11/231, http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463921316.001.

  • Cellmer R., 2010, Analiza przestrzenna dynamiki zmian cen nieruchomości lokalowych z wykorzystaniem regresji ważonej geograficznie (Spatial Analysis Of Dynamics Of Changes Housing Prices With Use Of Geographically Weighted Regression), Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Administratio Locorum vol. 9 (4), pp. 5-14

  • Cesa-Bianchi A., Cespedes L. F., Rebucci A., 2015, Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47: 301–335. doi: 10.1111/jmcb.12204

  • Dittmann I., 2012a, Lokalne rynki mieszkaniowe w Polsce – podobieństwo pod względem zmian cen transakcyjnych oraz dostępności mieszkań (The Local Residential Markets in Poland - Similarity in Terms of Changes in Transaction Prices and Availability), „Studia i Materiały Towarzystwa Naukowego Nieruchomości”, vol. 20, nr 1, pp. 71-89, Olsztyn

  • Dittmann I., 2012b, Prognozowanie cen na lokalnych rynkach nieruchomości mieszkaniowych na podstawie analogii przestrzenno – czasowych (Forecasting Prices on Residential Real Estate Local Markets Based on Area-Time Analogies), Ekonometria Econometrics nr 4 (38), Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, pp. 93-105.

  • Dittmann I., 2013, Podobieństwo zmian średnich cen transakcyjnych 1 m2 powierzchni mieszkań w wybranych miastach województwa śląskiego (The Similarity of the Changes in Average Transaction Prices of 1 m2 of Housing in Selected Cities of Silesia), Studia Ekonomiczne - Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach, nr 124, Wyd. UE w Katowicach, pp. 165 – 182

  • Dittmann I., 2014, Gamma konwergencja cen na lokalnych rynkach mieszkaniowych w Polsce (Gamma Convergence Of Prices On Local Housing Markets In Poland), Studia Ekonomiczne. Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach, Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach, nr 181, 2014, pp. 195-207

  • Engsted T., Petersen T.Q., 2015, Predicting returns and rent growth in the housing market using the rent-price ratio: Evidence from the OECD countries, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 53, May 2015, Pages 257–275

  • Gnat S., 2016, Tests for the Presence of Price Convergence on Residential Property Market in Several Districts of Szczecin in 2006–2009, Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia. Volume 16, Issue 1, Pages 186–195, ISSN (Online) 1898-0198, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/foli-2016-0011

  • Horsewood N., 2011, Demystifying Quantitative Methods in Comparative Housing Research: Dispelling the Myth of Black Magic, International Journal of Housing Policy, Vol. 11, Issue 4, pp. 375-393, DOI: 10.1080/14616718.2011.626601

  • Igan D., Loungani P., 2012, Global Housing Cycles, IMF Working Paper, WP/12/217, August

  • Kydland F. E, Rupert P., Šustek R., 2016, Housing Dynamics Over The Business Cycle, International Economic Review, Volume 57, Issue 4, Pages 1149–1177, DOI: 10.1111/iere.12193

  • Kruszka M., Trojanek R., 2014, The Synchronization of Price Cycles in the Local Housing Markets in Poland in 1996-2012. Świat Nieruchomości, 4(90), 5-11. DOI: 10.14659/worej.2014.90.01

  • Milcheva S., Zhu B., 2016, Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets, Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 72, Supplement, November 2016, Pages S148–S171, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.07.002

  • Miles W., 2015, Regional House Price Segmentation and Convergence in the US: A New Approach, January 2015, Volume 50, Issue 1, pp 113–128, DOI: 10.1007/s11146-013-9451-y

  • Scatigna M., Szemere R., Tsatsaronis K., 2014, Residential property price statistics across the globe, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2014 (dostęp online: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1409h.htm)

  • Schindler F., 2013, Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, January 2013, Volume 46, Issue 1, pp 44–90, doi:10.1007/s11146-011-9316-1

  • Steiner K., 2013, Residential Property Prices in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries: Stocktaking of Data and a View on New Developments in Data Availability, Focus on European Economic Integration, 3rd Quarter 2013, pp. 82-94

  • Szanduła J., analogie_makro2.xls, (online: http://szandulajacek.republika.pl)

  • Tissot B., 2014, Monitoring house prices from a financial stability perspective – the BIS experience, November (online: http://www.bis.org/ifc/events/ISI_reg_stats_conf2014/session4_BISpaper.pdf)

  • Titman S., Wang K., Yang J., 2014, The Dynamics of Housing Prices, Journal of Real Estate Research, Volume 36, Number 3, pp. 283-317

  • Trojanek R., 2012, An Analysis Of Changes In Dwelling Prices In The Biggest Cities Of Poland In 2008-2012 Conducted With The Application Of The Hedonic Method, Actual Problems of Economics, pp. 5-14

  • Tsatsaronis K., Zhu H., 2004, What drives housing price dynamics: cross country evidence, BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp. 65-78.

  • Weise A.D., Philips J.W., Hochheim N., 2015, Cyclicity of Housing Markets Under the Specific Condition of the Existence of a Bubble in the Real Estate Market, Real Estate Management and Valuation, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 85-98, DOI: 10.1515/remav-2015-0028

  • Wolski R., 2016, Investment Risk in the Context of Price Changes on the Real Estate and Stock Markets, Real Estate Management and Valuation, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 41-50, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/remav-2016-0004

  • Zimmer, D.M., 2015, Time-Varying Correlation in Housing Prices, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, July 2015, Volume 51, Issue 1, pp. 86–100, doi:10.1007/s11146-014-9475-y

  • Żelazowski K., 2011, Regionalne zróżnicowanie cen i ich determinant na rynku mieszkaniowym w Polsce (Regional Differences in Prices and Their Determinants on Polish Housing Market), Studia i Materiały Towarzystwa Naukowego Nieruchomości, vol. 19 nr 3, Olsztyn, pp. 98-106.

  • Żelazowski K., 2016, Fluktuacje cen na rynkach mieszkaniowych w kontekście cykli kredytowych (Price fluctuations in housing markets in the context of credit cycles), referat wygłoszony na Ogólnopolskiej Konferencji Naukowej „Finanse – Statystyka – Badania empiryczne” zorganizowanej przez Katedrę Finansów oraz Katedrę Prognoz i Analiz Gospodarczych na Uniwersytecie Ekonomicznym we Wrocławiu w dniu 26.10.2016

OPEN ACCESS

Journal + Issues

Search