Social Constructivism as Forecasting Matrix. Collective Habitus in International Relations

Social constructivism is not among the most popular theoretical approaches used in forecasting in International Relations. The article argues that constructivism suffers from the same limitations as any other paradigm in IR, therefore, there is no reason to exclude this theory from forecasting effort. In this paper, social constructivism is perceived to offer a new conceptual framework for sound and robust projections of the future. The core of our concept is constituted by the term of collective habitus. Habitus is a relatively stable, yet mutable social structure that can enable deliberations about future. It is based on a long-term history study programme of the School of Annales, as we identify long lasting habits-like patterns of behaviours among IR actors.