Occurrence probability of maximum sea levels in Polish ports of Baltic Sea coast

Open access

Occurrence probability of maximum sea levels in Polish ports of Baltic Sea coast

In this work long-term probability of occurrence of maximum sea levels in some points of Polish Baltic Sea coast, was determined. Use was made of multi-year series of measurement data on maximum yearly sea levels, and their probability distributions were determined. To the analysis Gumbel's distribution and Pearson distribution of 3rd type as well as quantile methods and the highest credibility method, were applied. Kolmogorov test was used to examine conformity of the theoretical distributions with real random variable distribution. As results from the analysis, the highest sea levels of 1000- year return period can be expected in Polish ports of the west part of the coast, i.e. Kolobrzeg (750, 2 cm, i.e. 2,5 m above the average sea level) and Swinoujscie (723,6 cm). Lower sea levels of the same return period can be expected in Ustka (720,2 cm), Wladyslawowo (709,7 cm) and Gdansk (716, 7 cm), respectively.

Byczkowski A.: Hydrology (in Polish), Vol. I and II, Publishing House of Warsaw Agriculture University (Wydawnictwo SGGW), Warszawa 1996

Gumbel, E. J.: Statistics of Extremes. Columbia University Press 1958

Jednoral T., Sztobryn M., Milkowska M.: Application of position statistics for prediction of extreme levels of Baltic Sea in Polish coastal zone (in Polish), Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika, no.5/ 2008

Kaczmarek Z.: Effectiveness of estimation of maximum flow rates of a given return period (in Polish), Archiwum Hydrotechniki, vol. 4, no. 3/1957

Kaczmarek Z., Trykozko E.: Application of the method of quantiles to estimation of the Pearson distribution. Acta Geophysica Polonica, vol. 12, no. 1/1964

Kaczmarek Z.: Meteorolgical and statistical methods in hydrology and meteorology (in Polish). Transport and Telecommunication Publishers (Wyd. Komunikacji i Lącznosci), Warszawa 1970

Massel S. (ed.): Handbook on hydro-engineering. Marine environmental loads on hydro-engineering buildings (in Polish). Maritime Publishing House (Wyd. Morskie), Gdansk 1992

Ozga-Zielinska M., Brzezinski J.: Applied hydrology (in Polish). Scientific Publishing House (Wyd. PWN), Warszawa 1997

Weglarczyk S.: Statistical methods (in Polish). Printed series of course lectures for students of Krakow University of Technology, Krakow 1993

Wroblewski A.: Occurrence of minimum yearly water states in South Baltic Sea (Based on observation results in Nowy Port of Gdansk in 1886÷1939 and 1946÷1966) (in Polish), Przegląd Geofizyczny, vol. XV, no. 1/1970

Wroblewski A.: Occurrence probability of maximum yearly levels of Baltic Sea in Gdansk Nowy Port, Kolobrzeg and Swinoujscie (in Polish). Oceanology, no. 6/1975

Wroblewski A.: Occurrence probability of minimum yearly levels of Baltic Sea in Gdansk Nowy Port, Kolobrzeg and Swinoujscie (in Polish). Archiwum Hydrotechniki, vol. 29, no. 4/1982

Wroblewski A.: Analysis and forecast of long-term sea level changes along the Polish Baltic Sea coast, Part I. Annual sea level maxima, Oceanologia, 33, 1992

Wroblewski A.: Long-term prediction of sea level rise (in Polish). Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika, no.3/2001

Polish Maritime Research

The Journal of Gdansk University of Technology

Journal Information

IMPACT FACTOR 2017: 0.763
5-year IMPACT FACTOR: 0.816

CiteScore 2017: 0.99

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.280
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.788

Cited By


All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 164 164 15
PDF Downloads 48 48 9