1 Division of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology, Department of Large Animal Diseases with the Clinic, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159c, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
2 Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Small Animal Diseases with the Clinic, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159c, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
Multivariate model for the assessment of risk of fetal loss in goat herds
The observational study was carried out in a population of Polish breeding goats in 2007 to determine the prevalence of fetal loss and identify risk factors contributing to its occurrence. The multivariate model allowing to predict the risk of the occurrence of fetal loss in a herd in a study population was developed. Data on the occurrence of fetal loss, as well as of 28 hypothesized risk factors were collected from goat owners using standardized questionnaire during face-to-face reviews on farms. Moreover, data on the herd-level seroprevalence of four abortifacient infections - Chlamydophila abortus, Leptospira spp., BVDV-1 and Neospora caninum - were included in the final analysis. Fetal loss was reported as occurring often in 12 of 49 goat herds (24.5%). The relationship between the hypothesized risk factors and the occurrence of fetal loss was verified in the multivariate logistic regression (α=0.05). Final analysis yielded four risk factors: regular veterinary supervision at least twice a year (OR 0.188; CI 95% 0.054 - 0.656), frequent occurrence of injuries and fractures (OR 3.172; CI 95% 1.081 - 9.310), frequent occurrence of respiratory signs in adult goats (OR 4.848; CI 95% 1.353 - 17.377) and presence of antibodies to C. abortus in a herd (OR 58.116; CI 95% 1.369 - 2466.438). The accuracy of the multivariate model was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve technique. Area under the curve was 0.895 (CI 95% 0.801-0.981). For optimal cut-off value of 0.20-0.35 the multivariate model had sensitivity of 75.00% and specificity of 89.19% in predicting fetal loss in a herd.
Abo-Shehada MN, Abu-Halaweh MM (2010) Flock-level seroprevalence of, and risk factors for Neospora caninum among sheep and goats in northern Jordan. Prev Vet Med 93: 25-32.
Abu-Dalbouh MA, Ababneh MM, Giadinis ND, Lafi SQ (2012) Ovine and caprine toxoplasmosis (Toxoplasma gondii) in aborted animals in Jordanian goat and sheep flocks. Trop Anim Health Prod 44: 49-54.
Anderlini GA, Mota RA, Faria EB, Cavalcanti EF, Valença RM, Pinheiro Júnior JW, de Albuquerque PP, de Souza Neto OL (2011) Occurrence and risk factors associated with infection by Toxoplasma gondii in goats in the State of Alagoas, Brazil. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 44: 157-162.
Buxton D (1998) Protozoan infections (Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum and Sarcocystis spp.) in sheep and goats: recent advances. Vet Res 29: 289-310.
Cantas H, Muwonge A, Sareyyupoglu B, Yardimci H, Skjerve E (2011) Q fever abortions in ruminants and associated on-farm risk factors in northern Cyprus. BMC Vet Res 7: 13.
Chanton-Greutmann H, Thoma R, Corboz L, Borel N, Pospischil A. (2002) Abortion in small ruminants in Switzerland: investigations during two lambing seasons (1996-1998) with special regard to chlamydial abortions. Schweiz Arch Tierheilkd 144: 483-492.
Czopowicz M, Kaba J, Szaluś-Jordanow O, Nowicki M, Witkowski L, Nowicka D, Frymus T (2010a) Prevalence of antibodies against Chlamydophila abortus and Coxiella burnetii in goat herds in Poland. Pol J Vet Sci 13: 175-179.
Czopowicz M, Kaba J, Szaluś-Jordanow O, Nowicki M, Witkowski L, Frymus T (2010b) Serological evidence of lack of contact with caprine herpesvirus type 1 and bluetongue virus in goat population in Poland. Pol J Vet Sci 13: 709-711.
Czopowicz M, Kaba J, Szaluś-Jordanow O, Nowicki M, Witkowski L, Frymus T (2011a) Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum infections in goats in Poland. Vet Parasitol 178: 339-341.
Czopowicz M, Kaba J, Schirrmeier H, Bagnicka E, Szaluś-Jordanow O, Nowicki M, Witkowski L, Frymus T (2011b) Serological evidence for BVDV-1 infection in goats in Poland. Acta Vet Hung 59: 399-404.
Czopowicz M, Kaba J, Smith L, Szaluś-Jordanow O, Nowicki M, Witkowski L, Frymus T (2011c) Leptospiral antibodies in the breeding goat population of Poland. Vet Rec 169: 230.
Dubey JP, Miller S, Desmonts G, Thulliez P, Anderson WR (1986) Toxoplasma gondii-induced abortion in dairy goats. J Am Vet Med Assoc 188: 159-162.
Engeland IV, Waldeland H, Andresen Ø, Løken T, Bjösrkman C, Bjerkåss I (1998) Foetal loss in dairy goats: an epidemiological study in 22 herds. Small Ruminant Res 30: 37-48
Gray ML, Singh C, Thorp F Jr (1956) Abortion and pre- or postnatal death of young due to Listeria monocytogenes. III. Studies in ruminants. Am J Vet Res 17: 510-516.
Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (2000) Applied Logistic Regression, 2nd ed., Wiley, New York, USA, p 375.
Kalil AC, Mattei J, Florescu DF, Sun J, Kalil RS (2010) Recommendations for the assessment and reporting of multi-variable logistic regression in transplantation literature. Am J Transplant 10: 1686-1694.
Lindsay DS, Rippey NS, Powe TA, Sartin EA, Dubey JP, Blagburn BL (1995) Abortions, fetal death, and stillbirths in pregnant pygmy goats inoculated with tachyzoites of Neospora caninum. Am J Vet Res 56: 1176-1180.
Løken T, Bjerkåss I (1991) Experimental pestivirus infections in pregnant goats. J Comp Pathol 105: 123-140.
Masala G, Porcu R, Daga C, Denti S, Canu G, Patta C, Tola S (2007) Detection of pathogens in ovine and caprine abortion samples from Sardinia, Italy, by PCR. J Vet Diagn Invest 19: 96-98.
Moeller RB Jr (2001) Causes of caprine abortion: diagnostic assessment of 211 cases (1991-1998). J Vet Diagn Invest 13: 265-270.
Navarro JA, Ortega N, Buendia AJ, Gallego MC, Martínez CM, Caro MR, Sánchez J, Salinas J (2009) Diagnosis of placental pathogens in small ruminants by immunohistochemistry and PCR on paraffin-embedded samples. Vet Rec 165: 175-178.
Nagelkerke N (1991) A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination. Biometrika 78: 691-692.
Neto JO, Azevedo SS, Gennari SM, Funada MR, Pena HF, Araujo AR, Batista CS, Silva ML, Gomes AA, Piatti RM, Alves CJ (2008) Prevalence and risk factors for anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies in goats of the Serido' Oriental microregion, Rio Grande do Norte state, Northeast region of Brazil. Vet Parasitol 156: 329-332.
Noordhuizen JP, Thrusfield MV, Frankena K, Graat EAM (2001) Application of quantitative methods in veterinary epidemiology, 2nd ed., Wageningen Pers, Wageningen, Holland.
Rodolakis A, Boullet C, Souriau A (1984) Chlamydia psittaci experimental abortion in goats. Am J Vet Res 45: 2086-2089.
Ryniewicz Z, Hułas C, Kaba J, Klockiewicz M, Bagnicka E (2003) Prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in milk herds of Polish goats - article in Polish. Med Weter 59: 1043-1045.
Smith MC, Sherman DM (2009) Goat Medicine, 2nd ed., Wiley-Blackwell, Ames, USA, pp 354, 596-597.
Sánchez J, Souriau A, Buendía AJ, Arricau-Bouvery N, Martínez CM, Salinas J, Rodolakis A, Navarro JA (2006) Experimental Coxiella burnetii infection in pregnant goats: a histopathological and immunohistochemical study. J Comp Pathol 135: 108-115.
Szeredi L, Jánosi S, Tenk M, Tekes L, Bozsó M, Deim Z, Molnár T (2006) Epidemiological and pathological study on the causes of abortion in sheep and goats in Hungary (1998-2005). Acta Vet Hung 54: 503-515.
Tempesta M, Camero M, Sciorsci RL, Greco G, Minoia R, Martella V, Pratelli A, Buonavoglia C (2004) Experimental infection of goats at different stages of pregnancy with caprine herpesvirus 1. Comp Immunol Microbiol Infect Dis 27: 25-32.
Waldeland H, Løken T (1991) Reproductive failure in goats in Norway: an investigation in 24 herds. Acta Vet Scand 32: 535-541.
Wiedmann M, Mobini S, Cole JR Jr, Watson CK, Jeffers GT, Boor KJ (1999) Molecular investigation of a listeriosis outbreak in goats caused by an unusual strain of Listeria monocytogenes. J Am Vet Med Assoc 215: 369-371.