Uni-Economic & Innovative Property Price Prediction in the HKSAR

Open access

Abstract

Historically, the study of the world's economy was classified into Micro-economics and Macroeconomics. Perhaps, contemporary economists should learn from the 'astronomists' about the universe which we are part of. We shall name this 'Uni-economics'. Many scientists have found that sunspots affect human behaviour. Some research findings even relate the 11 year periodic cycle to war and peace of mankind. It is also widely-known in the medical profession that sunspot radiation actually affects the physiology of our human body. With all these evidence in mind, the aim of this exploratory research paper is to investigate how sunspot activities can affect the investors' sentiment in the financial world since 1970 when the first post-war financial crisis was built up resulting from the oil crisis in the early '1970s. Time series techniques were deployed to track down the changes of Sunspot Counts over the last 44 years and their impact on the world's 4 main financial indices, i.e., S&P, FTSE, Nikkei & HSI. It was pretty astonishing to find out that, whilst there are insignificant correlations amongst the 4 financial indices over the period under investigation, the impact of the Sunspot Counts on them are highly significant, even on a day-to-day time series analysis. As a corrolary of the finding, the HK Property Market is used as a test case for the research output. It was interesting to find out that, apart from the Solar Minima, the Change-of-Slope from positive to negative also has a significant impact on the HK property prices. Hence, it was evident that there are 2 property clashes during the 11 year sunspot cycle, and their timing can be predicted pretty accurately (2014 & 2019) within +/- one year.

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