The Accumulation Effect

Although numerous studies over the past 20 years have revealed a clear connection between content analysis statistics and the results of public opinion surveys, the media’s “minimal effects” hypothesis still remains the overwhelmingly prevailing view. Among other things, it is not clear which of the two influences the other: Do people’s political preferences influence the media or do the media influence people’s preferences? In order to test this, the results of the 1999 and 2003 general elections and the 2002 local elections in Estonia, as well as the results of current public opinion surveys, were compared to the coverage given to the campaigning parties in the largest Estonian newspapers. The analysis showed that the coverage of political parties in the print media, as determined by the frequency of valuative notations, described the election results to a great extent. It is noteworthy that a change in media content was followed by a change in public opinion. At the same time, an accumulation effect became obvious: The voters’ preferences for political parties accumulated diachronically during the course of several weeks based on the information that was available to them.