Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process and Compound Poisson Process in the Modelling of Random Processes Related to Road Accidents

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Abstract

The stochastic processes theory provides concepts and theorems that allow building probabilistic models concerning accidents. So called counting process can be applied for modelling the number of the road, sea and railway accidents in the given time intervals. A crucial role in construction of the models plays a Poisson process and its generalizations. The new theoretical results regarding compound Poisson process are presented in the paper. A nonhomogeneous Poisson process and the corresponding nonhomogeneous compound Poisson process are applied for modelling the road accidents number and number of injured and killed people in the Polish road. To estimate model parameters were used data coming from the annual reports of the Polish police [9, 10]. Constructed models allowed anticipating number of accidents at any time interval with a length of h and the accident consequences. We obtained the expected value of fatalities or injured and the corresponding standard deviation in the given time interval. The statistical distribution of fatalities number in a single accident and statistical distribution of injured people number and also probability distribution of fatalities or injured number in a single accident are computed. It seems that the presented examples explain basic concepts and results discussed in the paper.

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