Cite

Alho, J.M. and B.D. Spencer. 1997. “The Practical Specification of the Expected Error of Population Forecasts.” Journal of Official Statistics 13: 203–226.Search in Google Scholar

Alho, J.M., S.E. Hougaard Jensen, and J. Lassila. 2008. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511493393Search in Google Scholar

Bijak, J. 2010. Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View. Dordrecht: Springer.10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0Search in Google Scholar

Carrington, D. 2014. “World Population to hit 11bn in 2100 - With 70% Chance of Continuous Rise.” The Guardian, September 18, 2014. Available at: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/18/world-population-new-study-11bn-2100 (accessed on 20 September 2014).Search in Google Scholar

De Beer, J. 2000. Dealing with Uncertainty in Population Forecasting. Voorburg: Statistics Netherlands.Search in Google Scholar

EUROCONTROL. 2014. “Just Culture.” Online material. Brussels: European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation. Available at: https://www.eurocontrol.int/articles/just-culture (accessed on 10 April 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Gerland, P., A.E. Raftery, H. Ševčíková, N. Li, D. Gu, T. Spoorenberg, L. Alkema, B.K. Fosdick, J. Chunn, N. Lalic, G. Bay, T. Buettner, G.K. Heilig, and J.R. Wilmoth. 2014. “World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century.” Science 346: 234–237. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1257469 (accessed on 20 September 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Gneiting, T., F. Balabdaoui, and A.E. Raftery. 2007. “Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 69: 243–268. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00587.x.Search in Google Scholar

Hajnal, J. 1955. “The Prospects for Population Forecasts.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 50: 309–322. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1955.10501267.Search in Google Scholar

Hand, D.J. 1994. “Deconstructing Statistical Questions.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 157: 317–356. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2983526.Search in Google Scholar

Hoem, J.M. 1973. Levels of Error in Population Forecasts. Article No. 61. Oslo: Statistisk Sentralbyrå.Search in Google Scholar

Kahneman, D. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.Search in Google Scholar

Keyfitz, N. 1972. “On Future Population.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67: 347–363. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1972.10482386.Search in Google Scholar

Lee, R.D. 1998. “Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting.” Population and Development Review 24: 156–190. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2808055.Search in Google Scholar

Long, J.F. and F.W. Hollmann. 2004. “Developing Official Stochastic Population Forecasts at the US Census Bureau.” International Statistical Review 72: 201–208. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00233.x.Search in Google Scholar

Lutz, W. and J.R. Goldstein. 2004. “Introduction: How to Deal with Uncertainty in Population Forecasting?” International Statistical Review 72: 1–4.10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00219.xSearch in Google Scholar

NZIER. 2014. “Costly Investment Decisions Require Improved Population Forecasts.” NZIER Insight 47. Wellington: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.Search in Google Scholar

O’Hagan, A., C.E. Buck, A. Daneshkhah, J.E. Eiser, P.H. Garthwaite, D.J. Jenkinson, J.E. Oakley, and T. Rakow. 2006. Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities. Chichester: Wiley.10.1002/0470033312Search in Google Scholar

Raftery, A.E. 2014. Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts. Mimeo; University of Washington. Available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/1408.4812 (accessed on 22 August 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Raftery, A.E., N. Li, H.Ševčíková, P. Gerland, and G.K. Heilig. 2012. “Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for All Countries.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109: 13915–13921.10.1073/pnas.1211452109Search in Google Scholar

Schiermeier, Q. 2014. “World Population Unlikely to Stop Growing This Century.” Nature News. September 18, 2014. Available at: http://www.nature.com/news/world-population-unlikely-to-stop-growing-this-century-1.15956 (accessed on 20 September 2014).10.1038/nature.2014.15956Search in Google Scholar

Spiegelhalter, D., M. Pearson, and I. Short. 2011. “Visualising Uncertainty about the Future.” Science 333: 1393–1400. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1191181.Search in Google Scholar

Taleb, N.N. 2007. The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House.Search in Google Scholar

Tuljapurkar, S. 1992. “Stochastic Population Forecasts and Their Uses.” International Journal of Forecasting 8: 385–391.10.1016/0169-2070(92)90054-DSearch in Google Scholar

WMO. 2008. “Guidelines on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty.” Technical document WMO/TD No. 1422. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization. Available at: https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/documents/GuidelinesonCommunicatingUncertainty_TD-4122.pdf (accessed on 10 April 2015).Search in Google Scholar

eISSN:
2001-7367
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
4 times per year
Journal Subjects:
Mathematics, Probability and Statistics