Prototype Spatio-temporal Predictive System of pest development of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella, in Kazakhstan

A. Afonin 1 , B. Kopzhassarov 2 , E. Milyutina 1 , E. Kazakov 3 , 4 , A. Sarbassova 2  und A. Seisenova 2
  • 1 St. Petersburg State University, , 199034, St. Petersburg
  • 2 Kazakh Research Institute for Plant Protection and Quarantine named after Zhazken Zhiembayev, , Almaty, Kazakhstan
  • 3 Russian State Hydrological Institute, , 199034, St. Petersburg
  • 4 LLC «NextGIS», , 117312, Moscow


A prototype for pest development stages forecasting is developed in Kazakhstan exploiting data from the geoinformation technologies and using codling moth as a model pest in apples. The basic methodology involved operational thermal map retrieving based on MODIS land surface temperature products and weather stations data, their recalculation into accumulated degree days maps and then into maps of the phases of the codling moth population dynamics. The validation of the predicted dates of the development stages according to the in-situ data gathered in the apple orchards showed a good predictivity of the forecast maps. Predictivity of the prototype can be improved by using daily satellite sensor datasets and their calibration with data received from a network of weather stations installed in the orchards.

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