Assessing the pre-REDD policies of countries with substantial forest area growth

Based on the method of Compensated Successful Efforts, this paper proposes a structural variables model to assess pre-REDD+ (Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Degradation plus) policies; selecting economic development, population growth, initial forest area, agricultural commodity export prices, and timber prices as structural variables, and empirically analyzes 11 high-forest-growth countries’ policies from 1992 to 2011. Results show that the forest area growth rate was negatively correlated with the initial forest area and agricultural commodities export prices, and positively correlated with population density, GDP per capita, and timber export prices. China and India’s entity fixed effects are more significant; in different periods the rate of actual forest area growth exceeded that of structural forest area growth in 11 countries. Overall, Compensated Successful Efforts proved to be useful for evaluating the effects of the high forest area growth country policies. Regardless, these countries should join REDD+ organizations and continue enhancing their forest management and increasing forest area. As part of this effort, REDD+ negotiations should consider fully compensation mechanisms for these countries to attract more countries and promote the progress of international climate negotiations.