Applying a New Bubble Test for a Composite Indicator

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Applying a New Bubble Test for a Composite Indicator

The paper applies a new bubble test checking the explosiveness of asset prices, especially real stock prices, real house prices and a combination of these prices. In this study, a sample of 17 OECD industrialised countries and the euro area over the period 1969 Q1 - 2010 Q2 is investigated. The authors carry out recursive unit root to determine the beginning and the end of a period of bubble behaviour. The new test procedure finds evidence for rejecting the non-bubble hypothesis. Particularly the composite indicator includes hints of bubble situations before the actual financial crisis.

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