How Important is Gambling in National GDP: Case Study from Austria, Croatia, Italy and Slovenia

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Abstract

Purpose – The situation in the field of gambling is changing due to the rise of Internet and Mobile gambling. In general gambling consumption is increasing every year, but the distribution of consumption has radically changed from Land Based gambling to Remote gambling. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the world gambling industry and a specific overview in Austria, Croatia, Italy and Slovenia in order to find some main similarities and differences in observed period.

Design/Methodology/Approach – The main research question is How important is gambling for the involved countries and what proportion of the national GDP does the gambling revenue account for? This paper presents the analysis of five statistical databases for the last sixteen years in order to find out some patterns, cyclical or seasonal features or other significant information that allows us to do forecasting of the future revenue with a certain degree of accuracy. We have systematically searched and collected data from the World Bank and the National Statistical Offices websites of the given countries. Statistical methods were used for benchmark analysis, while Box and Jenkins approach and ARIMA modelling were used for forecasting.

Findings – The smallest increase was recorded in Slovenia and the largest in Italy. The same effects were also observed in the GDP of these countries. Thus, the state budgets of Croatia and Italy are increasingly dependent on gambling taxes. It also has negative wages. The gambling addictions among the locals have become more frequent as well.

Originality of the research – The article shows the forecasts of the gambling revenue and its share in the GDP by 2027. We want to alert decision makers to adopt appropriate policies. States need to rethink their views on gambling and the excessive dependence of the state budget on gambling taxes. This is the first time a single comparative analysis of these countries and the above mentioned forecast has been conducted.

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