Modelling Support Mechanism Impact on Electric Vehicle Registration in Latvia

Open access


Globalization has led to an increased anthropological impact on the climate, and transport is one of the most greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive sectors that is facilitating it. Transport generated around 14 percent of global GHG emissions in 2010. Transport decarbonization is vital for limiting climate change, and electric vehicle (EV) is one of the solutions. EV prevalence in Latvia after Climate Financial Instrument (CCFI) funding has steadily increased and the average yearly EV growth has remained at 0.09 percent among newly registered light-duty passenger vehicles. The aim of this research is to model the impact of different direct and indirect support mechanisms on EV growth in Latvia taking into account the costs of the given support mechanisms. Accordingly, theoretical literature and research on vehicle decarbonization, EV support mechanisms, and barriers were analyzed. In order to obtain the data related to individual attitude towards EVs and their support policies a survey of different age groups was conducted. Based on the theoretical literature, a model was devised using STELLA software. The model was verified and validated. The results of the model indicate that until 2030 direct subsidies of at least 45 percent will have the largest impact on EV registration, while decreasing VAT by at least 9 percent is the most cost-effective option. The results regarding indirect support mechanisms show that free charging and development of charging infrastructure, as well as improvements to EV related technologies would increase EV registration. However, to ensure sustainable support to EVs it is advisable to combine direct incentives with indirect support mechanisms. Combining different policies lowers incentive costs and increases their efficiency.

If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.

  • Barisa A. (2016.) Modelling Transition Policies to a Low-Carbon Road Transport in Latvia by 2030 Dissertation. Riga Technical University Faculty of Power and Electrical Engineering Institute of Energy Systems and Environment. Riga: RTU Press 2016. Retrieved from

  • Barisa A. Rosa M. Kisele A. (2015). Introducing Electric Mobility in Latvian Municipalities: Results of a Survey. Energy Procedia 95 50–57.

  • Breetz H. L. & Salon D. (2018). Do Electric Vehicles Need Subsidies? Ownership Costs for Conventional Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in 14 U.S. cities. Energy Policy120 238–249.

  • The Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Latvia. (2016). Amendments to the Law on the Vehicle Operation Tax and Company Car Tax (23.11.2016.) Latvijas Vēstnesis241 (5813) 10.12.2016. Retrieved from

  • The Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Latvia (2015). Cabinet regulation No. 279 (02.06.2015). Road traffic regulations. Retrieved from

  • The Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Latvia. (2014). Cabinet regulation Nr. 78 (04.02.2014). Climate change financial instrument project competition “GHG emission reduction in transport sector – support to EV and charging infrastructure development“ provision.

  • Central Statistics Bureau of Latvia (2016). Average Fuel Consumption per 100 km (l). Retrieved from

  • The European Parliament and the Council (2009). Directive 2009/28/EC of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC. Retrieved from

  • EEA. (2017). Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transport. Retrieved from

  • European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). (2018). Overview on Tax Incentives for Electric Vehicles in the EU. ACEA. Retrieved from

  • Griffin A. (2017). Volvo to Make Only Electric Cars from 2019 Marking the end of the Petrol Engine. Independent. Retrieved from

  • ICCT. (2018). European Vehicle Market Statistics. Pocketbook 2018/19. ICCT. pp. 6–7. Available:

  • Infometrics (2015). A Model for Projecting the Uptake of Electric Vehicles for Ministry of Transport. Retrieved from

  • Janga D-C. Kim B. & Lee S-Y. (2018). A Two-Sided Market Platform Analysis for the Electric Vehicle T Adoption: Firm Strategies and Policy Design. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment62 646–658.

  • Lane B.W. Dumortier J. Carley S. Siddiki S. Clark-Sutton K. Graham J.D. (2018). All Plug-In Electric Vehicles are not the Same: Predictors of Preference for a Plug-In Hybrid Versus a Battery-Electric Vehicle. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment65 1–13.

  • Liebreich M. (2017). Breaking Clean. London Summit 2017. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Retrieved from

  • Liu D. & Xiao B. (2018). Exploring the Development of Electric Vehicles under Policy Incentives: A Scenario-Based System Dynamics Model. Energy Policy120 8–23.

  • Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional development of Latvia. (2017). Report on Climate Change Financial Instrument Operation in 2016. Retrieved from

  • Noori M. & Tatari O. (2016). Development of an Agent-Based Model for Regional Market Penetration Projections of Electric Vehicles in the United States. Energy 96 215–230.

  • Pasaoglu G. Fiorello D. Martino A. Scarcella G. Alemanno A. Zubaryeva A. Thiel C. (2012). Driving and Parking Patterns of European Car Drivers - a Mobility Survey. Joint Research Centre. Institute for Institute for Energy and Transport. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Retrieved from

  • Plotz P. Gnann T. & Sprei F. (2017). What are the Effects of Incentives on Electric Vehicle Sales in Europe? Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI Karlsruhe Germany. Retrieved 26.09.2018 from

  • Priessner A. Sposato R. & Hampl N. (2018). Predictors of Electric Vehicle Adoption: An Analysis of Potential Electric T Vehicle Drivers in Austria. Energy Policy122 701–714.

  • Road Traffic Safety Directorate. (2018). Press release: EV charging station network becomes operational. Retrieved from

  • Rošā M. Blumberga A. & Blumberga D. (2015). Modelling Sustainable Road Transport Strategies in Latvia. International Congress on Energy and Environment Engineering and Management: Extended Abstracts Book France Paris 22–24 July 2015.

  • Sierzchula W. Bakker S. Maat K. & van Wee B. (2014). The Influence of Financial Incentives and other Socio-Economic Factors on Electric Vehicle Adoption. Energy Policy 68 183–194.

  • Vaughn A. (2017). Jaguar Land Rover to Make Only Electric or Hybrid Cars from 2020. The Guardian. Retrieved 11.01.2018 from

  • Wesseling J. H. (2016). Explaining Variance in National Electric Vehicle Policies. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions21 28–38.

  • Yang Z. Slowik P. Lutsey N. & Searle S. (2016). Principles for Effective Electric Vehicle Incentive Design. USA: International Council on Clean Transportation. White paper. Retrieved from

  • Zauers A. (2016). EVs to Latvia are Coming Slowly and Leisurely (in Latvian). Diena. Retrieved from

Journal information
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 80 80 5
PDF Downloads 54 54 6