Life tables estimation for pension system actuarial projection model with insufficient data: case of Republic of Srpska

Open access


This article provides an upgraded model for actuarial projection of the dependency ratio of the pension fund in the Republic of Srpska. The nonexistence of complete upto-date life tables presents a huge problem of the pension system and life insurance industry modelling in the Republic of Srpska. Therefore, this article tries to encompass the problem by using the life tables of the Republic of Croatia as a starting point for adjustment of age-grouped life tables available for population of the Republic of Srpska. The actuarial projection model for the Pension and Disability Insurance Fund of the Republic of Srpska is upgraded by using these adjusted life tables and the best estimate mortality trend for mortality forecasting. The results of the Republic of Srpska pension fund dependency ratio projections obtained using a forecast of adjusted life tables are compared to the previous research on this topic which used the life tables of the Republic of Serbia for 2013 for the same model. This way we can observe the effect of life expectancy growth on pension fund’s dependency ratio estimates as one of the measures of pension fund’s sustainability.

If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.

  • 1. Abramowitz M. I. A. (1965). Handbook of Mathematical Functions with formulas Graphs and Mathematical Tables. Series 55 4th printing ed. Washington DC: National Bureau of Standards Applied Mathematics U.S. Government Printing Office.

  • 2. Booth T. Tickle L. (2008). Mortality modelling and forecasting: A review of methods. Annals of Actuarial Science Vol. 3 No. 1-2 pp. 3-43.

  • 3. Bošnjak N. (2016). The actuarial projection method for pension fund’s dependency ratio in case of Pension and Disability Insurance Fund of Republic of Srpska. Proceedings of the ISCCROInternational Statistical Conference in Croatia (Editors: Dumičić K. Erjavec N. Pejić Bach M.) Zagreb Croatia May 05-06 2016 Zagreb: Croatian Statistical Association pp. 72-78.

  • 4. ECB Economic Bulletin (2018). The economic impact of population ageing and pension reforms The European Central Bank.

  • 5. European Commission (2009). Pension schemes and pension projections in the EU-27 Member States - 2008-2060 Volume II - Annex. Brussels: Directorate-Generl for Economic and Financial Affairs Publishing.

  • 6. Holzmann R. (2009). Ageing population Pension Funds and Financial Markets. Washington D.C.: The World Bank.

  • 7. Human Mortality Database (2000). Human Mortality Data Base. Available at: [16 December 2017].

  • 8. Institute for Statistics of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2017). Detailed life tables of population of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Sarajevo: Institute for Statistics of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

  • 9. Institute of Actuaries and Faculty of Actuaries (1990). Continuous Mortality Investigation. Available at [03 January 2018].

  • 10. Institute of Actuaries (2004). Continuous Mortality Investigation Working Paper 3 - Projecting future mortality. Available at [03 January 2018].

  • 11. Iyer S. (1999). Actuarial Mathematics of Social Security Pensions. Geneva: International Labor Office and ISSA.

  • 12. Kostaki A. (2000). A Relational Technique for Estimating the Age Specific Mortality Pattern from Grouped Data. Mathematical Population Studies Vol. 9 No. 1 pp. 83-95.

  • 13. Pollard J. (1989). On the derivation of a full life table from mortality data recorded in five-year age groups. Mathematical Population Studies Vol. 2 No. 1 pp. 1-14.

  • 14. Republic of Srpska Institute of Statistics (2019). Republic of Srpska Institute of Statistics web page. Available at [20 December 2018].

  • 15. Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2014). Complete life tables for the Republic of Serbia 2010-2012 Belgrade: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

  • 16. The Working Group for development of Strategy for Pension System in Republic of Srpska 2010. The Proposal of the Strategy for Pension System Reform in Republic of Srpska Banja Luka: Republic of Srpska: The Government of Republic of Srpska.

  • 17. The World Bank Data (2018). The World Bank Data. Available at [20 December 2018].

  • 18. Waldron H. (2005). Literature review of long-term mortality projections. Social Security Bulletin Vol. 66 No. 1 pp. 15-36.

  • 19. Working Group on Ageing Populations and Sustainability (2017). Pension Projections Exercise 2018 Berlin: Bundesministrum fur Arbeit und Soziales.

Journal information
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 89 89 3
PDF Downloads 64 64 1