Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey: A Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach

Ceyhun Can Özcan 1  and Harun Uçak 2
  • 1 Faculty of Tourism, Necmettin Erbakan University, Konya, Turkey
  • 2 Faculty of Business, Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Alanya, Turkey

Abstract

Tourism has been one of the fastest-growing sectors in the world. Especially developed countries have been major markets for tourism destinations over the decades. Furthermore, the outbound tourism demand in emerging markets has increased rapidly in recent years. This study aims to investigate the determinants of Turkey’s outbound tourism demand by using the data from 1960 to 2013. For this purpose, the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model is used as an empirical analysis. This model classifies the time period into different regimes in order to obtain more robust results. Finally, our findings show that Turkish citizens’ outbound visits have been influenced by income and the exchange rates.

If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.

  • Aslan A., Kaplan M., & Kula F. (2008). International Tourism Demand for Turkey: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. MPRA – Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 10601. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10601/.

  • Binder, M., & Gross, M. (2013). Regime-Switching Global Vector Autoregressive Models. Working Paper Series, No 1569, August. Frankfurt, Germany: European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1569.pdf.

  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. (2015). Electronic data delivery system. Retrieved 1 February, 2015 from http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/cbt.html.

  • Che, C. M. (2013). Panel threshold analysis of Taiwan’s outbound visitors. Economic Modelling, 33(July), 787–793. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.006.

  • Fallahi, F., & Rodriguez, G. (2007). Using Markov-Switching Models to Identify the Link Between Unemployment and Criminality. Working Papers, no. 0701. Ottawa, Canada: University of Ottawa, Faculty of Social Sciences. https://socialsciences.uottawa.ca/economics/sites/socialsciences.uottawa.ca.economics/files/0701E.pdf.

  • Garin-Muñoz T. (2006). Inbound international tourism to Canary Islands: A dynamic panel data model. Tourism Management, 27(2), 281–291. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2004.10.002.

  • Garin-Muñoz T., and Montero-Martín L. F. (2007). Tourism in the Balearic Islands: A Dynamic Model for International Demand using Panel Data. Tourism Management, 28(5), 1224–1235. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2006.09.024.

  • Hamal, K. (1998). Australian Outbound Holiday Travel Demand: Long-haul versus Short-haul. Australian Tourism and Hospitality Research Conference, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia, 11–14 February 1998. Canberra, Australia: Bureau of Tourism Research.

  • Harris, R., & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting. Chichester, England: Wiley.

  • Kayhan, S., Bayat, T., & Koçyiğit A. (2013). Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejiminde Öğrenme Süreci ve Asimetri: Markov Switching Yaklaşımı (Learning Process and Asymmetry in Inflation Targeting Regime: Markov Switching Approach). İİBF Dergisi, 8(1),191-212.

  • Kim, H., Park, J. H., Lee, S. K., & Jang, S. C. S. (2012). Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea. Tourism Management, 33(5), 1141–1147. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2011.11.017.

  • Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look at Panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180–192. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2007.02.013.

  • Lim, C. (2004). The Major Determinants of Korean Outbound Travel to Australia. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64(3–4), 477–85. DOI: 10.1016/S0378–4754(03)00113–7.

  • Maloney, W. F., & Rojas, G. V. M. (2013). How elastic are sea, sand and sun? Dynamic panel estimates of the demand for tourism. Applied Economics Letters, 12(5), 277–280. DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000338626.

  • Mohd, T. I., & Zahid, I. (2006). Modelling Exchange Rates Using Regime Switcing Models. Sains Malaysiana, 35(2), 55–62.

  • Naudé, E., & Saayman, A. (2005). Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis. Tourism Economics, 11(3), 365–391. DOI: 10.5367/000000005774352962.

  • Özcan, C. C. (2013) Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Analizi (Econometric Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Tourism Demand) (Doctoral dissertation). Konya, Turkey: Necmettin Erbakan University.

  • Seetaram, N. (2010). Use of Dynamic Panel Cointegration Approach to Model International Arrivals to Australia. Journal of Travel Research, 49(4), 414–22. DOI: 10.1177/0047287509346992.

  • Song, H., Romilly, P., & Liu, X. (2000). An Empirical Study of Outbound Tourism Demand in the UK. Applied Economics, 32(5), 611–624. DOI: 10.1080/000368400322516.

  • Turkish Statistical Institute. (2015). Statistical Indicators. Retrieved 1 August, 2015 from http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr/Gosterge/?locale=tr.

  • Uçak, H. (2011). Türkiye’nin Yurtdışı Turizm Talebi. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi (Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences), 12(2).

  • United Nations World Tourism Organisation. (2014). Annual Report 2014. Madrid, Spain: Author.

  • Walle, Y. M. (2010). Tourist Flows and Its Determinants in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Development Research Institute EDRI Working Papers, June 01. Retrieved from www.edri.org.et/Resources/Working_Papers/EDRI_WP001_Tourist_Flows.pdf.

  • Webb, A. J., & Chotithamwattana, C. (2013). Who Visits Thailand and Why? An Econometric Model of Tourist Arrivals by Country of Origin. Proceedings of 8th Asian Business Research Conference 1–2 April, 2013, Bangkok, Thailand.

  • The World Bank. (2015). World Development Indicators. Retrieved 1 January, 2015 from http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.

  • Ziramba, E., & Moyo, B. (2013). Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand in South Africa: an Econometric Analysis. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 5(5), 260–267.

OPEN ACCESS

Journal + Issues

Search