Development of the Croatian National Security Strategy in the Hybrid Threats Context

Open access

Abstract

The development of the new National Security Strategy (NSS) of the Republic of Croatia, begun in November 2016, takes place in a radically different security environment compared to the first (and current) Croatian NSS published in 2002. This paper aims to provide incentives for potential adaptations to the approach and methodology used in Croatia’s NSS development, particularly in relation to hybrid warfare. Assuming that the hybrid adversary tends heavily to exploit the vulnerabilities of the targeted state and society, the paper addresses some of Croatia’s widely recognized weaknesses that should be taken into consideration in a threat assessment. As a conclusion, the paper proposes some recommendations, including the concept of societal resilience, related to ways to counter hybrid threats.

If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.

  • Arnold R. D. and Wade J. P. 2015. A definition of systems thinking: a systems approach. Procedia Computer Science 44(2015): 669-678.

  • Ascher W. and Overholt W. H. 1983. Strategic planning and forecasting: political risk and economic opportunity. 1st ed. New York: John Willey & Sons.

  • Barber L. 2017. Juncker tells Trump to stop ‘annoying’ praise for Brexit. Financial Times 24 March [online]. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/938452b6-1072-11e7-a88c-50ba212dce4d (Accessed 26 March 2017).

  • Barno D. 2013. Silicon iron and shadow: three wars that will define America’s future. Foreign Policy 19 March [online]. Available at: http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/03/19/silicon-iron-and-shadow/ (Accessed 15 September 2016).

  • Barno D. 2014. The shadow wars of the 21st century. The war on the rocks [online]. Available at: http://warontherocks.com/2014/07/theshadow-wars-of-the-21st-century/ (Accessed 15 September 2016).

  • Bartles C. K. 2016. Getting Gerasimov right. Military Review: The Professional Journal of the U.S. Army 96(1): 30-37.

  • Berzins J. 2014. Russia’s new generation warfare in Ukraine-implications for Latvian defence policy. National Defence Academy of Latvia Centre for Security and Strategic Research. Riga Latvia: National Defence Academy of Latvia.

  • Besemeres J. F. 2016. A difficult neighbourhood. Essays on Russia and East-Central Europe since World War II. Acton: The Australian National University Press.

  • Bilandžić M. 2015. Otvoreno [TV program] Croatian Radio-Television 1 16 March 22:30. Available at: http://vijesti.hrt.hr/276465/otvorenonacionalna-sigurnost-na-ispitu-31 (Accessed 12 January 2017).

  • Bilandžić M. 2017. Nacionalna sigurnost Hrvatske: od egzistencijalne ugroženosti do izvoznika sigurnosti i faktora međunarodne stabilnosti. Lecture given by Prof. Bilandžić at the Dominican monastery Split Croatia on 18 January 2017.

  • Bossel H. 1996. Deriving indicators of sustainable development. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 1(1996): 193-218.

  • Bugajski J. 2017. Russia’s new Macedonia offensive. Centre for European Policy Analysis 10 April [online]. Available at: http://cepa.org/EuropesEdge/Russias_new_Macedonia_offensive (Accessed 12 April 2017).

  • Buric I. and Stulhofer A. 2016. In search of the egalitarian syndrome: cultural inertia in Croatia? Financial Theory and Practice 40(4): 361-483.

  • Buzan B. Wæver O. and de Wilde J. 1998. Security: a new framework for analysis. Boulder CO: Lynne Rienner.

  • Cederberg A. and Eronen P. 2015a. How can societies be defended against hybrid threats? Strategic Security Analysis 9(1): 1-10.

  • Cederberg A. and Eronen P. 2015b. Wake up West! The era of hybrid warfare is upon us. Geneva Centre for Security Policy 31 August [online]. Available at: http://www.gcsp.ch/News-Knowledge/Global-insight/Wake-up-West!-The-Era-of-Hybrid-Warfare-Is-Upon-Us (Accessed 19 January 2017).

  • Clarke M. Gearson J. and Shaud J. A. 2009. Post-conference briefing note. In: Cain A. C. ed. Deterrence in the twenty-first century - proceedings. [pdf]. Available at: https://media.defense.gov/2017/Apr/05/2001727306/-1/-1/0/B_0118_DETERRENCE_TWENTYFIRST_CENTURY.PDF (Accessed 10 January 2017).

  • Conley H. A. Mina J. Stefanov R. and Vladimirov M. 2016. The Kremlin playbook: understanding Russian influence in Central and Eastern Europe. Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies.

  • Croatian Parliament 2002. Strategy for the Republic of Croatia’s national security. The Official Gazette of the Republic of Croatia no. 33/2002 [pdf]. Available at: https://www.soa.hr/UserFiles/File/Strategy_Republic_of_Croatia.pdf (Accessed 28 December 2016).

  • Croatian Parliament 2004. Zakon o pravima hrvatskih branitelja iz Domovinskog rata i članova njihovih obitelji. The Official Gazette of the Republic of Croatia no. 174/2004.

  • Doyle R. B. 2007. The U.S. national security strategy: policy process problems. Public Administration Review 4(2007): 624-629.

  • EC 2016. Joint staff working document EU operational protocol for countering hybrid threats “EU Playbook”. European Commission 11034/16.

  • Echevarria A. J. 2015. How should we think about “grey-zone” wars?. Infinity Journal 5(1):16-20.

  • EEAS 2015. Food-for-thought paper “Countering Hybrid Threats” ST 8887 2015 INIT. European External Action Service Council of the European Union [pdf]. Available at: http://www.statewatch.org/news/2015/may/eeas-csdp-hybrid-threats-8887-15.pdf (Accessed 15 September 2016).

  • EU Global Strategy (EUGS) 2016. Shared vision common action: a stronger Europe a global strategy for the European Union’s foreign and security policy. [online]. Available at: http://eeas.europa.eu/top_stories/2016/280616_global_strategy_en.htm (Accessed 15 September 2016).

  • Gerasimov V. 2013. Ценность науки в предвидении (The value of science is in the foresight). Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kurier (Military-Industrial Courier) 26 February [online]. Available at: http://www.vpk-news.ru/articles/14632 (Accessed 20 February 2017).

  • Giles K. Hanson P. Lyne R. Nixey J. Sherr J. and Wood A. eds. 2015. Chatham House report: the Russian challenge. London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs.

  • Harris J. 2000. G-DAE Working Paper No. 00-04: “basic principles of sustainable development”. Medford MA: Tufts University Global Development and Environment Institute.

  • Heuser B. 2010. The evolution of strategy-thinking war from antiquity to the present. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  • HINA 2016. Croatia starts drafting national security strategy. EBLnews 3 November [online]. Available at: https://eblnews.com/news/croatia/croatia-starts-drafting-national-security-strategy-42856 (Accessed 20 January 2017).

  • Hoffman F. 2014. On not-so-new warfare: political warfare vs. hybrid threats. The war on the rocks 28 July [online]. Available at: https://warontherocks.com/2014/07/on-not-so-new-warfare-politicalwarfare-vs-hybrid-threats/ (Accessed 12 November 2016).

  • Holmes L. 2015. Russia plans a ‘hybrid warfare’ campaign aimed at destabilising Europe says Bulgarian President. Independent 14 November [online]. Available at: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-plans-a-hybrid-warfarecampaign-aimed-at-destabalising-europe-says-bulgarianpresident-a6734981.html (Accessed 12 February 2017).

  • Ikenberry G. J. and Slaughter A. 2006. Forging a world of liberty under law: U.S. national security in the 21st century. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

  • Judson J. 2016. Interview: President of Croatia Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. Defense News 29 November [online]. Available at: http://www.defensenews.com/articles/interview-president-of-croatia-kolindagrabar-kitarovic (Accessed 12 April 2017).

  • Juncos A. E. 2017. Resilience as the new EU foreign policy paradigm: a pragmatist turn?. European Security 26(1): 1-18.

  • Keck M. and Sakdapolrak P. 2013. What is social resilience? Lessons learned and ways forward. Erdkunde 67(1): 5-19.

  • Kirillova K. 2017. Plans for a “Great Serbia” and the Kremlin’s hybrid war in the Balkans. Euromaidan Press 24 January [online]. Available at: http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/01/24/plans-for-a-great-serbiaand-the-kremlins-hybrid-war-in-the-balkans/#arvlbdata (Accessed 12 April 2017).

  • Krastev I. 2015. The Balkans are the soft underbelly of Europe. Financial Times 14 January [online]. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/2287ba66-8489-11e4-bae9-00144feabdc0 (Accessed 3 February 2017).

  • Kreutz A. 2015. Russia’s place in the world. New York: Algora Publishing.

  • Lausic F. 2017. Dramatično upozorenje: “Ina bi mogla postati recept za novu katastrofu”. Slobodna Dalmacija 4 February [online]. Available at: http://www.slobodnadalmacija.hr/novosti/biznis/clanak/id/466144/dramaticno-upozorenje-ina-bi-mogla-postatirecept-za-novu-katastrofu (Accessed 12 February 2017).

  • Liang Q. and Xiangsui W. 1999. Unrestricted warfare. Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House. Available at: http://www.cryptome.org/cuw.htm (Accessed 10 October 2016). Edition in French: Liang Q. and Xiangsui W. 1999. La guerre hors limites. Paris: Editions Payot & Rivages pour l’édition de poche l’édition 2006.

  • Lonsdale D. J. 2008. Part I strategy. In: Jordan D. Kiras J. D. Lonsdale D. J. Speller I. Tuck C. and Walton C. D. eds. Understanding modern warfare. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  • Major C. and Mölling C. 2015. A hybrid security policy for Europe: resilience deterrence and defence as leitmotifs. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs. SWP Comments No. 22.

  • Mansoor P. R. 2012. Introduction: hybrid warfare in history. In: Murray W. and Mansoor P. R. eds. Hybrid warfare: fighting complex opponents from the ancient world to the present. New York: Cambridge University Press. pp.1-17.

  • Matutinovic I. 2014. Industrial policy for sustainability. In: Domazet M. and Marinović J. D. eds. Sustainability perspectives from the European semi-periphery. Zagreb: IDIZ and Heinrich Boll Stiftung. pp. 277-293.

  • MoD Croatia 2010. National Security Strategy draft presented. Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Croatia 23 December [online]. Available at: https://www.morh.hr/en/news/press-releases/6610-national-security-strategy-draft-presented.html (Accessed 18 February 2017).

  • MoD Croatia 2016. Commission launches work on drafting national security documents. Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Croatia 24 November [online]. Available at: https://www.morh.hr/en/about-us/243-morh/hrvatsko-vojno-uciliste-kategorija/idde/iddenews/13732-commission-launches-work-on-drafting-nationalsecurity-documents.html (Accessed 12 February 2017).

  • MoD Finland 2010. Security strategy for society. Ministry of Defence Finland. Government Resolution 16.12.2010. [online]. Available at: http://www.defmin.fi/en/publications/strategy_documents/the_security_strategy_for_society (Accessed 7 January 2017).

  • NATO 2010. Bi-SC input to a new NATO capstone concept for the military contribution to countering hybrid threats. NATO SACEUR and SACT [pdf]. Available at: http://www.act.nato.int/images/stories/events/2010/20100826_bi-sc_cht.pdf (Accessed 10 January 2017).

  • NATO 2016. NATO Warsaw Summit communiqué. Press release on 9th July 2016. NATO [online] (last updated 10.55 AM on 29 March 2017). Available at: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm (Accessed 30 March 2017).

  • NATO 2017. Readiness action plan. NATO [online]. Available at: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_119353.htm (Accessed 20 February 2017).

  • NATO ACT 2015. Framework for future alliance operations. Norfolk VA: NATO Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation.

  • NATO STO 2016. SAS-121 Hybrid warfare research specialist team on hybrid warfare. NATO Science and Technology Organization Activity Final Report.

  • NATO STO 2017. SAS-127 Hybrid warfare: a case study NATO implications. NATO Science and Technology Organization Activity Report.

  • Newmann W. 2002. Reorganizing for national security and homeland security. Public Administration Review 62(Special Issue): 126-137.

  • President of Russia 2014. Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club. President of Russia 24 October [online]. Available at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860 (Accessed 20 March 2017).

  • Stolberg A. 2012. How nation-states craft national security strategy documents. Carlisle PA: U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute Monograph.

  • Stoykov M. 2016. Expert assessment: national capabilities for protecting societal resilience against hybrid threats. In: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) CD&E Annual Conference. Sofia Bulgaria 14-16 November.

  • Tartar A. Saraiva C. and Li C. 2016. Meet 2016’s worst economic performers. Bloomberg 11 January [online]. Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/meet-2016-sworst-economic-performers-flirting-with-disaster (Accessed 20 March 2017).

  • WebFinance Inc. 2017. The business dictionary. [online]. Available at: http://www.businessdictionary.com (Accessed 12 January 2017).

  • Wijkman A. 2015. An increasingly complex and vulnerable world. In: EC (European Commission) Building resilience in a globalised world conference. Brussels Belgium 30 September [online]. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/event/conference/building-aresilient-europe-in-a-globalised-world (Accessed 20 February 2017).

  • Wolfers A. 1952. “National security” as an ambiguous symbol. Political Science Quarterly 67(4): 147−165.

  • Yanakiev Y. 2016. Conceptualizing the role of societal resilience in countering hybrid warfare. In: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Concept Development and Experimentation Annual Conference. Sofia Bulgaria 14-16 November.

  • Zebrowski C. 2016. The value of resilience: securing life in the twenty-first century. New York: Routledge.

Search
Journal information
Impact Factor


CiteScore 2018: 0.31

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.114
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 0.418

Metrics
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 282 124 7
PDF Downloads 148 95 8